Grafická úprava, zpracování elektronické podoby a tisk publikací SÚKL

Transkript

1 Nabídka k veřejné zakázce malého rozsahu: Grafická úprava, zpracování elektronické podoby a tisk publikací SÚKL Identifikační údaje zadavatele: Jméno zadavatele: Česká republika, Státní ústav pro kontrolu léčiv organizační složka státu Sídlo : Šrobárova 48, Praha 10 IČ : Osoba oprávněná jednat za zadavatele : PharmDr. Martin Beneš, ředitel Kontaktní osoba : Ing. Karel Kettner

2 OBSAH ORIGINÁL 1. Všeobecné údaje o uchazeči 2. Krycí list nabídky 3. Doklady prokazující splnění kvalifikace a) Základní kvalifikační předpoklady - čestné prohlášení b) Profesní kvalifikační předpoklady - výpis z obchodního rejstříku, živnostenský list c) Technické kvalifikační předpoklady - seznam služebb s obdobným předmětem provedených uchazečem za poslední 1 rok činnosti 4. Nabídková cena v členění dle zadávací dokumentace 5. Podrobný popis a specifikace nabízeného plnění 6. Návrh smlouvy

3 1. VŠEOBECNÉ ÚDAJE O UCHAZEČI ORIGINÁL Identifikační údaje uchazeče: Název uchazeče: DDmen s.r.o. Právní forma: společnost s ručením omezeným Firma je zapsána v obchodním rejstříku, který vede Krajský soud v Ostravě, oddíl C, vložka Sídlo: Litovelská 23, Olomouc IČ: DIČ: CZ Bankovní spojení: /5500 Jména členů statutárního orgánu společnosti vč. kontaktů: Petr Skácel, tel.: , fax: , skacel@ddmen.cz, ID datové schránky: sctybgb, adresa: Litovelská 97/23, Olomouc Pověřená osoba zmocněná k dalšímu jednání včetně písemného pověření k zastupování: Petr Skácel (viz. výpis z OR) Profil společnosti: Zajímáme se zejména o to, jak sofistikovaně a esteticky vytvářet a aplikovat vizuální identitu značky v souvislosti s jejími potřebami vůči zákazníkům, společnosti a sobě samým. Zapojili jsme se do desítek projektů v oblasti positioningu, brand designu a interaktivního designu. Vzhledem k našim zkušenostem si myslíme že jsme vhodným uchazečem. Co děláme: - Brand building - Vizuální identita - Brand watching - Interaktivní design - Programming

4 Abecední seznam klientů: AAA Auto Group Administer, s.r.o. Aliance Unichem, a.s. AL Invest a.s. Altman AZ, s.r.o. ANECT a.s. AUTO-COLOR spol. s r.o. AWT Čechofracht Group. AWT SPEDI-TRANS s.r.o. Bauer Consulting, s.r.o. Česká Spořitelna, a.s. Český Telecom, a.s. ČSAD Hodonín, a.s. Czech Marionettes, s.r.o. Domos, s.r.o. Dentos Expert s.r.o. estat o.s. Glatzova & Co. s.r.o. GreenEffect Hanácký Masokombinát, a.s. InfoNavigator, s.r.o. Inetbon, a.s. Inversia, s.r.o. Iteg, a.s. ITK, s.r.o. Lacman, s.r.o. LD seating LOGOS a.s. MAM reality, s.r.o. Metrostav, a.s. Orco Property Group, a.s. Orion Real, s.r.o. Kaizen Institute, s.r.o. Patium Zbraslav Project Syndicate o.s. ProjektyDomů Property CEE, s.r.o. Radio Egrensis, s.r.o. Skřivanek, s.r.o. TinglTangl T-Machines, s.r.o. VIA, s.r.o. Západní Stavební a.s.

5 2. KRYCÍ LIST NABÍDKY ORIGINÁL Základní údaje : Název veřejné zakázky: Grafická úprava, zpracování elektronické podoby a tisk publikací SÚKL Zadavatel: Česká republika, Státní ústav pro kontrolu léčiv organizační složka státu IČ: Sídlo: Šrobárova 48, Praha 10 Osoba oprávněná jednat za zadavatele: PharmDr. Martin Beneš, ředitel Kontaktní osoba: Ing.Karel Kettner Telefon: Fax: karel.kettner@sukl.cz Profil zadavatele: Uchazeč: Adresa: DDmen s.r.o., Litovelská 23, Olomouc IČ: DIČ: CZ Osoba oprávněná jednat za uchazeče Petr Skácel Bankovní spojení: /5500 Osoby zmocněné k zastupování: Petr Skácel Celková nabídková cena : Cena celkem bez DPH: Kč Sazba DPH 20 %: Kč Cena celkem s DPH: Kč

6 Ocenění jednotlivých položek dle zadávací dokumentace: a) Sazba a tisk výroční zprávy Cena za sazbu a tisk bez DPH: Kč/1 ks, Kč/2 ks b) Věstník SÚKL Cena za sazbu bez DPH: Kč/1 ks, Kč/24 ks c) Nežádoucí účinky informační zpravodaj Cena za sazbu bez DPH: 878 Kč/1 ks, Kč/8ks d) Farmakoterapeutické informace Cena za sazbu bez DPH: 350 Kč/1 ks, Kč/24 ks V Praze dne:.... DDmen s.r.o. Petr Skácel

7 3. DOKLADY PROKAZUJÍCÍ SPLNĚNÍ KVALIFIKACE

8 3a) Základní kvalifikační předpoklady ČESTNÉ PROHLÁŠENÍ Zadavatel: Česká republika - Státní ústav pro kontrolu léčiv, organizační složka IČ: se sídlem Šrobárova 48, Praha 10, Zastoupená PharmDr.Martinem Benešem, ředitelem Uchazeč: DDmen s.r.o. IČ: DIČ: CZ Zapsáno v OR, KS Ostrava odd. C, vložka č se sídlem Litovelská 23, Olomouc Zastoupená Petrem Skácelem, jednatelem společnosti Já, Petr Skácel prohlašuji jménem společnosti DDmen s.r.o., že společnost splňuje základní kvalifikační předpoklady pro bod 3.2 písm. a i zadávací dokumentace pro výběrové řízení. V Praze dne:... Petr Skácel jednatel společnosti DDmen s.r.o.

9 3b) Profesní kvalifikační předpoklady - výpis z obchodního rejstříku - živnostenský list

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12 3c) Technické kvalifikační předpoklady SEZNAM SLUŽEB S OBDOBNÝM PŘEDMĚTEM PROVEDENÝCH UCHAZEČEM ZA POSLEDNÍ 1 ROK ČINNOSTI:

13 ANECT a.s. výroční zpráva, sazba marketingových materiálů Historie ANECT a.s. Certifikace ANECT a.s. ANECT a.s. nabízí ANECT a.s. a obchodní partneři Společnost byla založena v roce Zpočátku jsme zaměstnávali dvě desítky odborníků. Od svého vzniku jsme se orientovali na dodávky v oblasti komunikačních systémů a na výstavbu multiprotokolových počítačových sítí pro středně velké a velké zákazníky, převážně postavených na technologiích a produktech společnosti Cisco Systems. Snahou naší společnosti je poskytovat služby a produkty na vysoké úrovni. Integrovaný systém řízení společnosti ANECT a.s. pokrývá všechny identifikované procesy a prováděné činnosti. Služby podnikové integrace Business Process Management, Architektura a integrace informačních systémů, Business Collaboration Solutions Integrovaným systémem je myšleno účinné uplatňování politiky, cílů a strategií QMS, ISMS, ITSMS, EMS ve společnosti s ohledem na spokojenost všech zúčastněných stran (zákazníků, zaměstnanců, společnosti i vlastníků). Řízené služby Služby aktivní bezpečnosti Abychom našim zákazníkům mohli nabídnout kvalitní a komplexní služby, vybíráme si spolehlivé obchodní partnery. Společnost ANECT a.s. získala nejvyšší statuty certifikací u největších světových firem. Dosažení úrovně spočívá v náročném procesu, při kterém jsme museli splnit vysoké požadavky pro získání certifikace a prokázat odborné znalosti produktů i schopnost jejich uplatnění v praxi. V roce 1996 proběhla transformace původní společnosti s ručením omezeným na akciovou společnost. V létě téhož roku byla otevřena kancelář v Praze, kde má svá sídla převážná část zákazníků naší společnosti. V roce 1997 byla založena dceřiná společnost ANECT s.r.o. v Bratislavě, která byla na akciovou společnost transformována v roce Datová centra (DC) Archivace uživatelských dat a informací, Virtualizace a konsolidace serverů, Konsolidace DC, Zabezpečení DC, Vysoce dostupné DC, SAN infrastruktura Celý integrovaný systém funguje v souladu s požadavky norem ČSN EN ISO 9001:2001, ČSN ISO/IEC :2006, ČSN ISO/IEC 27001:2006, ČSN EN ISO 14001:2005 a v souladu s požadavky Českého obranného standardu ČOS Společnost ANECT a.s. se v roce 2006 stala partnerem nového technologického řešení Cisco TelePresence pro střední a východní Evropu. Ryze česká firma tak uspěla v konkurenci dalších, mezinárodních společností, jež měly o získání tohoto partnerství zájem. Voice, Video, Messaging IP Telefonie, Videokonference, Telepresence, IP Video Surveillance (kamerové systémy zajišťující fyzickou ochranu budov) Při budování systému managementu jakosti ve společnosti ANECT a.s. byl uplatňován procesní přístup. Činnosti, které využívají zdroje a jsou ve společnosti řízeny za účelem přeměny vstupů na výstupy, jsou považovány za procesy. Cílem těchto procesů je zajistit, aby realizované zakázky (projekty, technická podpora, dodávky zboží atd.) byly ve shodě s požadavky zákazníka, a aby dosažení této shody bylo možno prokázat. Změnou, která strategicky posílila postavení společnosti v sektoru služeb poskytovaných prostřednictvím internetu a mobilních komunikací, bylo získání majoritního podílu ve firmě icom Vision, s.r.o. Integrovaný systém řízení (ISŘ) Jednotný způsob vedení a řízení společnosti, který splňuje (mimo jiné) požadavky na řízení kvality, řízení služeb IT, informační bezpečnosti a environmentu. Vybrané reference ANECT a.s. Systém řízení jakosti (QMS) Systém stanovování politiky jakosti, cílů jakosti a způsobu dosahování těchto cílů. Tento systém tvoří procesy probíhající ve společnosti, které úroveň jakosti ovlivňují, a související dokumentace, jež upravuje podmínky a způsob průběhu těchto procesů. Informační bezpečnost Bezpečná komunikační infrastruktura, Zavádění systémů řízení bezpečnosti informací (ISMS), Audity a bezpečnostní testy, Řízení rizik ICT a bezpečnosti informací, Ochrana proti škodlivým kódům Řízení ICT a konzultace Kapacitní plánování, Bezpečný přechod na outsourcing, Optimalizace ICT procesů, Konsolidace informací o stavu ICT, ServiceDesk systémy, Sledování a řízení stavu ICT služeb Systém řízení IT služeb (ITSMS) Systém řízení IT služeb nám pomáhá identifikovat a uspořádat všechny činnosti a procesy v organizaci, stanovit jasné pravomoci a odpovědnosti. ISO/IEC 20000, které vzešlo ze standardu BS 15000, popisuje integrovanou sadu procesů řízení pro poskytování služeb IT a obsahově se řídí ustanoveními IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL). Tento první celosvětový standard se speciálně vztahuje k managementu služeb IT a zaměřuje se na zlepšování kvality, zvyšování efektivity a snížení nákladů u IT procesů. Pro Ministerstvo kultury ČR vytvořil ANECT a.s. interaktivní webový portál, který výrazně zjednodušuje systém čerpání finančních prostředků z fondů Evropské unie. Jde o první řešení svého druhu v ČR. Portál navádí koordinátory projektů ke správně vyplněným žádostem a umožňuje jim také sledovat změny, hlídat termíny a při vyplňování žádostí komunikovat s ministerstvem a řešit případné nejasnosti. Řízení ICT a konzultace Datová centra (DC) Informační bezpečnost Řízené služby Systém řízení životního prostředí (EMS) Jde o součást integrovaného systému řízení společnosti použitá k vytvoření a zavedení její environmentální politiky a řízení jejích environmentálních aspektů. Odborníci na bezpečnost a řízení rizik ICT společnosti ANECT a.s. se v první polovině roku 2009 podíleli na prohloubení systému řízení bezpečnosti informací podle požadavků známé mezinárodní normy ISO/IEC v rámci datového skladu Komerční banky, a.s. Během projektu proběhlo posouzení aktuálního stavu řízení bezpečnosti informací ve formě komplexního interního auditu bezpečnosti datového skladu. Na základě jeho výsledků byla navržena a společně s pracovníky banky realizována důležitá bezpečnostní opatření, která přispěla ke zvýšení kvality a účinnosti řízení bezpečnostních rizik a prohloubila měření účinnosti bezpečnostních opatření. 2Ring Advanced TAS Partner Hewlett-Packard Preferred Partner Symantec Platinum Partner VMware VIP Enterprise Partner Sun Associate Partner Trend Micro Affiniti plus Partner Citrix Silver Partner IBM Advanced Partner S konsolidací datových center se většina společností potkává jen jednou za dlouhé období, a proto je získání zkušeností v této oblasti velmi obtížné a nákladné. Nasazení archivačního systému je způsobem, jak zajistit dostupnost historických informací, nejlépe až na úroveň koncových uživatelů. CA Value Added Reseller Premier Strategie ANECT a.s. ANECT a.s., dodavatel inovačních řešení v oblasti komunikační a systémové infrastruktury, nabízí své znalosti, zkušenosti, produkty a služby užší skupině subjektů veřejného sektoru a několika významným společnostem síťového odvětví, sektoru finančních a telekomunikačních služeb, výrobního průmyslu, médií a služeb. Zákaznická řešení stavíme na technologiích ověřených trhem a realizaci zakázek svěřujeme do rukou našich zkušených odborníků, kteří dokážou svým inovativním myšlením a přístupem posunout limity použitých technologií či postupů o krok dále. Jsme otevřenou společností. Pro maximalizaci užitné hodnoty zákaznických řešení se spojujeme vždy s těmi nejlepšími v oboru. Náš koncept rozvoje produktů a služeb je postaven na aktivní komunikaci a spolupráci s mezinárodní komunitou významných společností v oboru komunikačních a informačních technologií a klíčových podnikatelských subjektů v daném odvětví. Služby podnikové integrace Služby provozu ANECT a.s. je schopen přizpůsobit se i požadavkům velmi náročného mezinárodního zákazníka, jakým je například společnost KIA Motors Slovakia s.r.o. Na zelené louce se budoval nejen výrobní závod, ale také komunikační a počítačové vybavení. To znamenalo vybudovat komunikační infrastrukturu se zahrnutím přenosu nejen dat, ale také hlasu a videa, s možností rozšíření sítě a spojení s externími subdodavateli ( ). AudioCodes Channel Partner Microsoft Gold Partner CheckPoint Gold Partner U našich zákazníků aktivně vyhledáváme složitější a komplexnější problémy, které následně řešíme. Při tvorbě návrhu řešení se primárně snažíme soustředit na podstatu problému, na nejkritičtější body a na vzájemné vazby mezi dílčími částmi problému. Zákazníka se snažíme pochopit v co nejširším kontextu prostředí, ve kterém rozvíjí svoji podnikatelskou činnost. Systém řízení informační bezpečnosti (ISMS) Systém řízení informační bezpečnosti je uspořádaná soustava organizačních a řídicích opatření definovaných normou ČSN ISO/IEC 27001:2006, založených na procesním přístupu a směřujících k tomu, aby instalovaná bezpečnostní opatření a úkoly definované v Politice informační bezpečnosti ANECT a.s. a dalších interních předpisech vždy odpovídaly aktuálním rizikům a potřebám ochrany informací a informačních systémů ANECT a.s. Systém informační bezpečnosti je plně včleněn do systému řízení společnosti. ANECT a.s. úspěšně vyřešil také složitou situaci na Ministerstvu financí ČR, kde zaměstnanci dříve používali různé typy osobních počítačů a notebooků od nejrůznějších výrobců, což znamenalo velké množství ruční instalace a údržby a řadu problémů s tím spojených. Chybělo také centrální uložení nastavení pracovních stanic. Ministerstvo se rozhodlo nastavit Windows Vista a vytvořit nový, centralizovaný a co nejjednodušší scénář instalací. Bylo zřízeno centrální distribuční místo, které umožnilo připojit nové počítače a řešit provozní potřeby uživatelů, což přineslo významnou úsporu času administrátorům ( ). Cisco Gold Partner Konsolidace datového centra Archivace uživatelských dat a informací Služby provozu Správa ICT, Odborná podpora, Servis, Dohled, Managed Services Počátkem roku 2008 jsme náš pracovní tým rozšířili o skupinu Inovace a strategický rozvoj. Tato skupina lidí se systematicky zabývá identifikací nových, inovativních zákaznických řešení, jejichž realizace napomáhá našim zákazníkům k vytváření konkurenční výhody a k dalšímu podnikatelskému růstu. Jednou z největších zakázek naší společnosti bylo vybudování klientského servisu České pojišťovny a.s., zejména výstavba komunikačního centra. Je postaveno na IP technologii Cisco, která klientům umožňuje komunikovat s pojišťovnou souběžně telefonem, faxem i em. Systém také umožňuje provázání na další podnikové aplikace a připojení agentů odkudkoli. Je zde ale i možnost rozšíření kapacity na jakékoli množství operátorů v různých lokalitách ( ). ICT infrastruktura Akcelerace WAN infrastruktury, Optimalizace podnikového připojení k internetu, Optimalizace WAN infrastruktury, Konsolidace ICT infrastruktury, Efektivní správa MS infrastruktury, Propojení MS infrastruktury s personálními systémy, optické síťové systémy Datová centra Výčet našich partnerů považujeme za další doklad naší odbornosti: Datová centra LOB 301 Zabezpečení datového centra 301_Archivace-uzivatelskych_dat_a_informaci_07.indd :30:47 Datová centra LOB _Konsolidace_datoveho_centra_pokor_06.indd 1 Pomoci maximálně omezit finanční ztráty a zabránit ztrátě reputace způsobené nedostupností klíčových podnikových aplikací klienta po cílených síťových útocích. To je jen jeden z cílů této služby. Zákaznická řešení oceňujeme na základě vyčíslení dodané užitné hodnoty. Transparentní a jednoduchá organizační struktura naší společnosti umožňuje výrazně optimalizovat nákladové položky komoditních dodávek, jež jsou obvykle nedílnou součástí našich řešení. Spokojenost zákazníka je pro nás synonymem kvality odvedené práce. Spokojenost zákazníka systematicky měříme, vyhodnocujeme a reagujeme na jeho podněty. Virtualizace a konsolidace serveru :25:38 Služba Virtualizace a konsolidace serveru je nástrojem pro náhradu desítek serverů pouze několika hostitelskými servery virtuální infrastruktury a tím rapidně redukovat provozní náklady na provoz a údržbu infrastruktury. Voice, Video, Messaging Český obranný standard (ČOS) Standard stanovuje požadavky na management jakosti subjektů a organizací, vůči kterým byla tato povinnost uplatněna smluvně, nebo u kterých povinnost tento systém zavést a udržovat vyplývá z jiného požadavku. ICT infrastruktura ANECT a.s. je také Národním bezpečnostním úřadem certifikován na stupeň TAJNÉ. Outsourcing komplexních celků a služeb je velkou výzvou pro jakoukoli společnost. Komerční banka, a.s. se rozhodla outsourcovat všechny telekomunikační služby. ANECT a.s. dostal příležitost realizovat Telco Managed Services a provést banku přechodem na zavedení primárního koordinátora pro telekomunikační služby. Během projektu se ANECT a.s. ve spolupráci s pracovníky banky dohodl na modelu služeb a nastavil procesy nezbytné pro jejich zajištění. Tyto procesy byly důsledně implementovány a testovány od banky přes ANECT a.s. jako primárního koordinátora až po všechny dodavatele telekomunikačních služeb. Tento model je již provozován druhým rokem, k plné spokojenosti Komerční banky, a.s. Datová centra LOB 304 Datová centra LOB _Zabezpeceni_datoveho_centra_pokor_06.indd :23:02 302_Virtualizace_a_konsolidace_serveru_pokor_07.indd :26:43 desky_lob_017.indd 12 Konsolidace ICT infrastruktury Optimalizace připojení k internetu Garance dostupnosti aplikací a služeb přes síť Internet, optimalizace nákladů za internetové služby. ICT infrastruktura LOB _Optimalizace_pripojeni_k_internetu_pokor_08.indd 1 ICT infrastruktura Konsolidace ICT je náročný projekt, který společnosti a subjekty státní správy řeší zpravidla jednou za několik let svého působení. Propojení Microsoft infrastruktury s personálními systémy :23:34 ICT infrastruktura LOB 505 Voice, Video, Messaging Efektivní správa MS infrastruktury 505_konsolidace_icet_infrastruktury_pokor_06.indd :54:52 Videokonference Telepresence virtuální jednací místnost Zvýšení dostupnosti a efektivity zaměstnanců, významné úspory cestovních nákladů, nové možnosti operativních schůzek. Významné zkrácení rozhodovacích procesů. Získejte možnost pořádat operativní setkání a profitujte z výhod, které přinášejí služby telepresence, jako jsou zrychlení rozhodovacích procesů a tím zvýšení efektivity a produktivity, snížení potřeby cestovat a s tím spojených operativních nákladů. Voice, Video, Messaging LOB 402 Voice, Video, Messaging LOB :51:05 401_Telepresence_09.indd :24:43 402_Videokonference_07.indd :21:59 Služba zajišťuje úplnou správu životního cyklu pracovních stanic a serverů, od prvotní instalace operačního systému a aplikací přes jejich aktualizace, průběžnou inventarizaci až po migraci dat při přechodu na nový hardware. Služba zajišťuje vzájemnou on-line synchronizaci mezi informacemi v personálních systémech a mezi účty uživatelů v podnikových systémech a aplikacích Microsoft infrastruktury. ICT infrastruktura LOB _Propojeni_MS_infrastruktury_pokor_06.indd 1 ICT infrastruktura LOB :45:19 506_Efektivni_sprava_MS_infrastruktury_pokor_08.indd :49:03 desky_lob_017.indd :57:09 desky_lob_017.indd :55:57

14 Project Syndicate o.s. sazba marketingových materiálů Will Banks and Financial Markets RECOVER in 2009? Nouriel Roubini NEW YORK Global financial markets in 2008 experienced their worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930 s. Major financial institutions went bust; others were bought up on the cheap or survived only after major bailouts. Global stock markets fell by more than 50%; interest-rate spreads skyrocketed; a severe liquidity and credit crunch appeared; and many emerging-market economies staggered to the International Monetary Fund for help. The United States will certainly experience its worst recession in decades, a deep and protracted contraction lasting about 24 months through the end of Moreover, the entire global economy will contract. There will be recession in the euro zone, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies. There is also a risk of a hard landing for emerging-market economies, as trade, financial, and currency links transmit real and financial shocks to them. In the advanced economies, recession had brought back earlier in 2008 fears of 1970 s-style stagflation (a combination of economic stagnation and inflation). But, with aggregate demand falling below growing aggregate supply, slack goods markets will lead to lower inflation as firms pricing power is restrained. Likewise, rising un- sumption and investment and thus setting in motion a vicious circle in which incomes and jobs are squeezed further, aggravating the fall in demand and prices. employment will control labor costs and wage growth. These factors, combined with sharply falling commodity prices, will cause inflation in advanced economies to ease toward the 1% level, raising concerns about deflation, not stagflation. By Nouriel Roubini So what lies ahead in 2009? Is the worst behind us or ahead of us? To answer these questions, we must understand that a vicious circle of economic contraction and worsening financial conditions is underway. Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero, so monetary policy becomes ineffective. Falling prices mean that the real cost of capital is high and the real value of nominal debts rise, leading to further declines in con- A WORLD OF IDEAS Today s global crisis was triggered by the collapse of the US housing bubble, but it was not caused by it. America s credit excesses were in residential mortgages, com- mercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. There was also excess in the securitized products that converted these debts into toxic financial derivatives; in borrowing by local governments; in financing for leveraged buyouts that should never have occurred; in corporate bonds that will now suffer massive losses in a surge of defaults; in the dangerous and unregulated credit default swap market. Moreover, these pathologies were not confined to the US. There were housing bubbles in many other countries, fueled by excessive cheap lending that did not reflect underlying risks. There was also a commodity bubble and a private equity and hedge funds bubble. Indeed, we now see the demise of the shadow banking system, the Sharing complex of non-bank financial institutions that looked like banks as they borrowed short term and in liquid ways, leveraged a lot, and invested in longer term and illiquid ways. As a result, the biggest asset and credit bubble in human history is now going bust, with overall credit losses likely to be close to a staggering $2 trillion. Thus, unless governments rapidly recapitalize financial institutions, the credit crunch will become even more severe as losses mount faster than recapitalization and banks are forced to contract credit and lending :16:31 Member papers Vilaggazdasag A AfghAnistAn: Equity prices and other risky assets have fallen sharply from their peaks of late 2007, but there are still significant downside risks. An the Burden of HARD TIMES A World of IDEAS _magazine_tisk_06.indd 28 As traditional monetary policy becomes ineffective, other unorthodox policies will continue to be used: policies to bail out investors, financial institutions, and borrowers; massive provision of liquidity to banks in order to ease the credit crunch; and even more radical actions to reduce long-term interest rates on government bonds and narrow the spread between market rates and government bonds. AlgeriA: AngolA: ArgentinA: 29 ArmeniA: 002_magazine_tisk_06.indd 29 What we do :16:36 By Peter Singer PRINCETON The economic gloom that shrouded the world in 2008 has led many to ask whether the apparent prosperity that preceded it was real. We know that in countries as diverse as China, India, Russia, and the United States, the number of billionaires soared. More generally, the top 1% of the population prospered. But the gap between the rich and poor widened, and at least in the US, the incomes of the poor and the middle class stagnated. No wonder that many are now skeptical about taxpayer-funded schemes to bail out banks, insurance companies, and even automakers. Is this just another case of politicians making sure that, even in hard times, the wealthy elite that supports them will once again do better than everyone else? But, in assessing the benefits achieved by economic growth, it is a mistake to focus on whether the income gap between rich and poor widened or narrowed. If a person s annual income increased from $300 to $500 that may be enough to lift him out of extreme poverty, and will make a huge difference to his welfare and that of his family. If, at the same time, the income of a person earning a million dollars increased by $100,000, the income gap will have widened. But since $100,000 doesn t make that much difference to the welfare of a person earning a million dollars, the gap in welfare will have narrowed. I believe that we shouldn t really be focusing on inequality anyway. The Dismal Economist s AustrAliA: AustriA: We should give priority to reducing unnecessary suffering. So the right question to ask is this: did the economic growth of recent years make the poor better off? AzerbAijAn: B BAhrAin: Families that can no longer keep up with their mortgage payments will lose their homes. All of this causes real suffering. Reuniting Europe JOSCHKA FISCHER The Rebel Realist BelArus: Belgium: Zero Hora Brunei DArussAlAm: The Brunei Times Capital Weekly BulgAriA: Dnevnik Obekti Le Pays BurkinA FAso: Iwacu Burundi: 002_magazine_tisk_06.indd :17:41 D DenmArk: Berlingske Tidende Børsen Information Jyllands Posten Kristeligt Dagblad Politiken La Nation de Djibouti Djibouti: DominicAn republic: Mercados & Tendencias Hoy Daily Star Egypt IcelAnd: Facts and Arts Helsingin Sanomat Taloussanomat Turun Sanomat La Tribune Le Figaro Le Nouvel Economiste Les Echos IndonesiA: IrAq: IrelAnd: IsrAel: ItAly: G GAbon: GeorgiA: GermAny: GhAnA: Greece: Le Temps 24 Saati Pirveli Journali Resonance The Georgian Times Boersen Zeitung Die Welt FT Deutschland Germania PLUS Handelsblatt Sueddeutsche Zeitung Wirtschaftswoche The Mail Public Agenda I Naftemporiki Kerdos To VimaGrenAdA: Frettabladid Morgunbladid Vidskiptabladid Business and Economy Business Standard Businessworld Mint Planet Earth Prabhat Khabar Sakaal Times The Economic Times The Hindustan Times The Mathrubhumi The Statesmen The Times of India Jakarta Post Koran Tempo Al-Sabah Al-Jadeed Business And Finance The Irish Examiner Yediot Aharonot Anthill Formiche Il Sole 24 Ore Internazionale La Repubblica La Stampa Wired J JAmAicA: JApAn: Jamaica News Bulletin The Gleaner Daily Yomiuri Diamond Nikkei Business The Japan Times Toyo Kezai Yomiuri Shimbun Al Ghad Jordan Property Jordan Times Jagdish Bhagwati Grenada Informer El Periodico GuAtemAlA: Mercados & Tendencias The Guatemala Times Le Lynx GuineA: Stabroek News GuyAnA: JordAn: The Open Economy and Its Enemies K H KAzAkhstAn: HAiti: HondurAs: Hong kong: HungAry: KenyA: KoreA, south: Le Matin Mercados & Tendencias Apple Daily Hong Kong Economic Journal Hong Kong Economic Times Ming Pao South China Morning Post Figyelo HVG Kapital Kazakhstan Monitor The Nation Chosun Ilbo Chosun Ilbo Weekly Biz Emerging Investor Joong Ang Ilbo Maeil Business The Financial News The Hankyoreh The Korea Herald The Korea Times Koha Ditore The Kosovo Times NAOMI WOLF Kosovo: Brochure_redesign_08.indd odd43 001_magazine_tisk_06.indd 1 Economists are good at identify- America would be facing these ing underlying forces, but they problems even if it were not simul :19:29 are not so good at timing. The taneously facing a financial crisis. dynamics are, however, much as America s economy had been suanticipated. America is still on percharged by excessive leveraga downward trajectory for 2009 ing; now comes the painful prowith grave consequences for the cess of deleveraging. Excessive leveraging, combined with bad world as a whole. lending and risky derivatives, has For example, as their tax revenues caused credit markets to freeze. plummet, state and local govern- After all, when banks don t know ments are in the process of cut- their own balance sheets, they ting back their expenditures. aren t about to trust others. American exports are about to decline. Consumer spending is The Bush administration didn t plummeting, as expected. There see the problems coming, denied has been an enormous decrease that they were problems when in (perceived) wealth, in the tril- they came, then minimized their lions, with the decline in house significance, and, finally, panand stock prices. Besides, most icked. Guided by one of the aramericans were living beyond chitects of the problem, Hank their means, using their houses, Paulson, who had advocated for with their bloated values, as col- deregulation and allowing banks to take on even more leveraging, lateral. That game is up. 36 lem, not unlike that at the beginning of the last century, when productivity increases in agriculture meant that a rapidly declining share of the population could find work there. Nowadays, increases in manufacturing productivity are even more impressive than they were for agriculture a century ago; but that means the adjustments that must be made are all the greater. it was no surprise that the administration veered from one policy to another each strategy supported with absolute conviction, until minutes before it was abandoned for another. Even if confidence really were all that mattered, the economy would have sunk. Moreover, what little action has been taken has been aimed at shoring up the financial system. But the financial crisis is only one of several crises facing the country: the underlying macroeconomic problem has been made worse by the sinking fortunes of the bottom half of the population. Those who would spend don t have the money, and those with the money aren t spending. Not long ago, there was discussion of the dangers of a disorderly unwinding of the global economy s massive imbalances. What we are seeing today is part of that unwinding. But there are equally fundamental changes in the global balances of economic power: the hoards of liquid money to help bail out the world lie in Asia and the Middle East, not in West. But America, and the world, is also facing a major structural prob- A World of IDEAS 2009 global institutions do not reflect these new realities. respect for human rights. Globalization has meant that we are increasingly interdependent. Globalization has meant that we are increasingly interdependent. One cannot have a deep and long downturn in the world s largest economy without global ramifications. I had long argued that the notion of decoupling was a myth; the evidence now corroborates that view. This is especially so because America has exported not just its recession, but its failed deregulatory philosophy and toxic mortgages, so financial institutions in Europe and elsewhere are also confronting many of the same problems. 54 Public Intellectuals :50: Brochure_redesign_08.indd odd :50:30 Contributors include: - philosophers Leszek Kolakowski, John Gray, and Robert Spaemann; - historians Pierre Nora, Reinhard Koselleck, Dominique Schnapper, and Tsvetan Todorov; The point of reciting these challenges facing the world is to suggest that, even if Obama and other world leaders do everything right, the US and the global economy are in for a difficult period. The question is not only how long the recession will last, but what the economy will look like when it emerges. - political scientist Francis Fukuyama; - and public intellectuals and statesmen, such as Poland s Bronislaw Geremek and Germany s Kurt Biedenkopf. Produced in cooperation with Vienna s Institute for Human Sciences (Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen) Will it return to robust growth, or will we have an anemic recovery, :17:08 002_magazine_tisk_06.indd 37 What makes a war just? Are preemptive attacks ever morally defensible? Is the world becoming Americanized, and if so, who is responsible? What is the meaning of treason? QAtAr: PAnAmA: Daily Aajkal Daily Times The Friday Times La Prensa Mercados & Tendencias The National La Nacion Ultima Hora Caretas Peru Economico Semana Economica Business World The Daily Inquirer Reuniting Europe : P ApuA new guinea PArAguAy: Peru: Philippines: PolAnd: Gazeta Prawna Gazeta Wyborcza Newsweek Poland Diario Economico Jornal De Negocios Publico El Nuevo Dia Al Arab Al Raya Al-Sharq Gulf Times The Peninsula RomAniA: RwAndA: Dilema Veche Romania Libera ZIUA Vedomosti The Moscow Times St. Petersburg Times Chelyabinskyi Rabotchyi Krestianin Pravozaschitnik The New Times SAint helena: SenegAl: SerbiA: SlovAkiA: SloveniA: Solomon islands: South AfricA: SpAin: Sri lanka: SudAn: Sweden: SwitzerlAnd: :17:12 ZAmbiA: UgAndA: The New Vision Den UkrAine: Ekonomichna Pravda Investgazeta Korrespondent Mysl Segodnya United ArAb emirates: Al Khaleej Al Mal Alrroya Aleqtissadiya Gulf News Khaleej Times The National European CEO United kingdom: The Guardian The Guardian Comment is Free The New Economy The Scotsman World Finance Diario Las Americas United states: La Opinion The Downeast Coastal Press The International Economy Washington Hispanic Washington Observer Brecha UruguAy: El Observador Informe Uruguay Optovik UzbekistAn: PressTIGe The Saint Helena Independent The St. Lucia Mirror The Voice Al Eqtisadiah Al-Jazirah Le Journal de l Economie Danas Ekonomist Standard Times Lianhe Zaobao The Straits Times Goodwill Hospodárske Noviny Sme Trend Týždeň Delo Finance MAG Island Sun Newspaper Business Day The Citizen ABC Capital El Pais Expansion La Vanguardia Bimnetha Ground View Nila Nokku The Sunday Times Ajras-Alhurriya The Citizen Dagens Nyheter OmVarlden Sydsvenskan Der Bund Yemen Times The Post Jagdish Bhagwati The Open Economy and Its Enemies V VAnuAtu: VenezuelA: Vanuatu Daily Post El Nacional NOURIEL ROUBINI JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ 9 After the Storm I Dissent: Unconventional Economic Widsom NOURIEL ROUBINIexamines USES HIS CLARITY OFwhy VISION ONE THAT Jean pisani-ferry how and HAS BEEN VINDICATED AND AGAIN TO EXPOSE integration has endedtime up pulling europe apart THE BIASES TO TAINT ECONOMIC and laysthat out CONTINUE how to re-energize the eu. ANALYSIS. Jagdish Bhagwati examines the real-world JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ GETS TO THE HEART OF TODAY S PRESSING consequences of arcane economic-policy ECONOMIC DEBATES, PIERCING THE VEIL OF ORTHODOXYdeBates THAT and the abstract ideas that underlie them. SURROUNDS FIELDS LIKE TAXATION, DEVELOPMENT, AND TRADE. Jagdish Bhagwati, Professor of Law and When most economists do not dare to buck Is boom and bust Is the current international conventional Joseph E. Stiglitz, Economics atwisdom, Columbia University and a permanent feature of the world architecture governing a Senior Nobel Laureate Economics, Chairman Fellow atinthe Council on Foreignof capitalist order? trade and finance sufficient? the US Council of Economic Advisers under Relations, is one of the world s leading President Clinton, and former Vice markets need global taxation of global banks and experts on international trade,senior serving in top-doisglobal President and Chief Economist of World the World and are today s financial transactions viable? level advisory positions for the Trade regulation Bank, does not hesitate. supranational institutions the Organization and the United Nations. Has economic openness right ones to provide it? Stiglitz s criticisms of the Washington Is thethe richeu s world poised for Have great motors prolonged period ofand sluggish adeeper integration growth? enlargement lost continued Will the sovereign-debt crisis their energy? claim more victims? Can Europe even continue to come.adviser to ECOFIN (the EU s Ato former Does anyone remain united?know how big the key committee economic Now, Nouriel for Roubini is onegovernance), of the world s global mountain of toxic assets theis? EU s north/south executive president voices of the French prime and Are most sought-after on the causes really east/west Edited by divides Joanna Rose, consequences of of theeconomic failure ofanalysis, a decades- and minister s Council Are fi a thingof of writer for &nancial Framsteg derivatives magazine and producer unbridgeable? long economic orthodoxy. Asscience described by Forskning and senior adviser to the director of the theradio s past? Filosofiska Rummet program Swedish LionelTreasury, Barber, editor The Financialinsider Times, Are the internal imbalances French JeanofPisani-Ferry s Only a fewon Europe s such as Nouriel Roubini, now that have mounted since the perspective fast-changing celebrated as the is thinking man s prophet of euro s creation and the history political economy essential reading. doom identified pieces of the puzzle before of suspicion that imposes on the crisis hit. them a nationalist narrative unavoidable? HealtH and Medicine Vietnam Economic Times Viet Nam News Z U S SAint lucia: SAudi ArAbiA : Yemen: TAiwAn: Apple Daily Taipei Times Wealth Magazine Daily News TAnzAniA: Sunday News The Guardian The Nation ThAilAnd: Le Magnan Libere Togo: Liberte Hebdo Bursa Turkey: Dunya Economic Forum Radikal Today s Zaman R RussiA: VietnAm: Y T improved the lives of the Bhagwati believes defending thefrom open Is the dream of a Third Way Consensus rocked that the World Bank world s poorest people? economy is thehis defining issue of dynamics our time. between today s global within. Moreover, research on the Would reversing three decades his pioneering ofininformation andacademic technicalresearch change and has his capitalism and yesterday s of economic policy really practical pursuits, he is devoted to showing discredited revolutionized economics. socialism still alive? how open economies accelerate human development and strengthen respect for human rights. International Economics :49:58 World-renoWned physicians and experts address the technology and ethics of cutting-edge medical discoveries and the thorny policy issues they prompt. Contributors include: - Nobel Laureates Paul Berg and Christian de Duve; - Claude Kordon of the French Institute of Health and Medical Research; - Harvard s infectious disease expert Paul Farmer; - Oxford University Professor of Physiology and Director of the Royal Institute Susan Greenfield; - and Lennart Levi of Sweden s Karolinska Institute. deliver greater stability while Is debt always the enemy of ensuringcontinued innovation growth? and dynamism? International Economics 0350-Brochure_redesign_08.indd odd21 Do medical advances promise eternal youth or an ethical quagmire? With skyrocketing medical costs and aging populations, will even rich societies be unable to assure decent medical care for all? Are millions needlessly dying in poor countries because they suffer from diseases that do not affect the rich? What will be the payoff of mapping the human genome? _magazine_tisk_06.indd 36 PAkistAn: L Agefi Le Temps Tagesanzeiger Q SierrA leone: SingApore: Al Shabiba Times of Oman P warning in ever-sharper tones of the explosion World Trade Organization and the United Nations. Are there specific female today s foremost philosophers, historians, and thinkers dissect the trends, paradoxes, and reflections fashioning our World and our future. Many in the developing world have benefited greatly from the last boom, through financial flows, exports, and high commodity prices. Now, all of that is being reversed. Indeed, it is the ultimate irony that money is now flowing from poor and well-managed economies to the US, the source of the global problems. OmAn: Professor of Economics York Jean Pisani-Ferry, Director ofat thenew BrusselsUniversity s ofprofessor Business of and based BruegelStern think School tank and Chairman of Monitor, Nouriel Economics at RGE the University of Paris,Roubini has dared to resist the tide of market euphoria that made his career in research and policy by preceded the economic crisis of 2008/2009, addressing exactly such questions. Relations, one of the world s leading Has the Westisillegitimately experts on international trade, serving monopolized the idea of human in top-level advisory positions for the rights? Strategic Spotlight O Puerto rico: Namibia Economist The Namibian Kantipur My Rebuplica Nagarik Daily Nepal Times The Himalayan Times De Volkskrant Het Financieele Dagblad NRC Handelsblad The Dominion Post The Independent The Marlborough Express The Nelson Mail The Press The Southland Times The Sunday Star Times The Taranaki Daily News The Timaru Herald The Waikato El Confidencia El Nuevo Diario Mercados & Tendencias Le Sahel Business Day Daily Independent Daily Triumph National Daily Punch Tell Magazine Aftenposten Bistands Aktuelt Dagbladet Dagens Naeringsliv The North Post Jean Pisani-Ferry PortugAl: NAmibiA: Is America s traditional Jagdish Bhagwati, Professor of Law and commitment tocolumbia democracy andand Economics at University equality terminal decline? SeniorinFellow at the Council on Foreign dynamism? NorwAy: N JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ Joseph E. Stiglitz is Professor of Economics at Columbia University TimesNicArAguA: Niger: NigeriA: MAcAu: Macau Business Magazine Macau Daily Times Utrinski Vesnik MAcedoniA: Les Nouvelles MAdAgAscAr: The Nation MAlAwi: Berita Harian MAlAysiA: Forward Magazine Malaysiakini The Edge The New Straits Times The Star Les Echos MAli: L Indépendant First MAltA: The Malta Independent The Sunday Times The Times of Malta Al Akbar Nouakchott MAuritAniA: Eveil Hebdo Le Quotidien de Nouakchott News on Sunday MAuritius: Examen Mexico: Reforma Logos Press MoldovA: Udriin Sonin MongoliA: Vijesti Montenegro: Assabah Morocco: Assahara al Maghribia La Vie Economique L Economiste Le Matin Evening News MozAmbique: Magazine Independente O Pais Burma Digest MyAnmAr: Worldly PHilosoPHers improved the lives of the world s New zealand: M Wolf, who served as an electoral campaign values? Bhagwati believes that defending the poorest people? adviser to Bill Clinton and Al Gore, challenges Edited by Krzysztof Michalski, Whatever happened to feminism? open economy is the defining issue of our Wouldviews reversing Director Vienna s Institutetime. for Human Sciences academic research received neverthree losingdecades sight ofofhow In his pioneering of economic policy reallyand reflects public debate both influences and his practical pursuits, he is devoted to deliver greater stability while the character and quality of our political showing how open economies accelerate ensuringcontinued innovation and institutions. human development and strengthen Europe s fast-changing political economy is essential reading. NepAl: NetherlAnds: LAtviA: Diena Latvija Avize Immar wa Iktissad LebAnon: L Orient le Jour The Daily Star Public Eye Lesotho: Work For Justice New Democrat LiberiA: Liechtensteiner Vaterland Liechtenstein: Liechtensteiner Volksblatt Verslo Zinios LithuAniA: Luxemburger Wort Luxembourg: Tageblatt NAOMI WOLFJagdish TRANSCENDS A PURELY FEMINIST Bhagwati examines the SENSIBILITY real-world BY EMBEDDING IT WITHIN A BROADER CRITIQUE OF consequences of arcane economic-policy debates CONTEMPORARY POLITICS AND SOCIETY. and the abstract ideas that underlie them. Author of such acclaimed books as The Is themyth current international Beauty and The End of America, and a architecture leader of feminism s third wave, Naomi governing world Wolf advocates power feminism : women trade and finance sufficient? asserting themselves politically to get Is global taxation of banks andwhat they want. Yet, taking into account differences financial transactions viable? of race, culture, and class, she rejects the idea Has economic openness of a universal female agenda. Al Jaridaa AKI-Press L 8 pro-american. greater responsibility for fixing exactly such questions. Can Europe even continue to the world s problems? Fischerunited? was more than a popular and effective remain A former adviser to ECOFIN (the EU s key euro s creation and the history of suspicion that imposes on them a nationalist narrative unavoidable? FrAnce: KuwAit: Al Watan Daily KyrgyzstAn: I IndiA: F FinlAnd: E EcuAdor: Egypt: Elbadeel Mercados & Tendencias Aripaev Den za Dnjom Eesti Paevaleht Addis Admas Addis Fortune ICT Focus Magazine The Daily Monitor The Reporter The Next Wave foreign minister. An enragé of the 1960 s and committee How can the Islamic world s for economic governance), executive Are the EU s north/south 1970 s, a founder of Germany sand Green Party, president democratic defiprime cit be closed? of the French minister s east/west divides and the man who ledunbridgeable? the Greens out of the Council Economic Analysis, senior Howofdangerous is the and threat of political wilderness, Fischer has a history of adviser to the director of the French Treasury, Are the internal imbalances a nuclear Middle East? swimming against the since mainstream. Jean Pisani-Ferry s insider perspective on that have mounted the NEW YORK I have long been forecasting that it was only a matter of time before America s housing bubble which began in the early days of this decade, supported by a flood of liquidity and lax regulation would pop. The longer the bubble expanded, the larger the explosion and the greater (and more global) the resulting downturn would be. EthiopiA: 7 Have thefischer, EU s great motors Joschka Germany s former foreign Pisani-Ferry, Director ofcation the BrusselsHas European unifi deeper integration and minister and vice chancellor, has, throughout Jean based Bruegel its think tank and Professor of reached end? his career, personifi ed a maverick continued enlargement form lostof leftist Economics at the University of Paris, has made politics at once principled, pragmatic, and Can and should Europe assume their energy? his career in research and policy by addressing :17:40 El salvador: EstoniA: C CAmbodiA: Chinese Business Daily Phnom Penh Post Rasmei Kampuchea Biencar Hebdo CAmeroon: Le Messager La Nouvelle Expression The Cameroon Post L Observateur ChAd: El Mercurio Chile: La Tercera China Business Journal ChinA: China Business News China Daily Fortune Town Magazine Investor s Journal Modern Weekly Southern Metropolis Daily Southern Weekly The Oriental Morning Post The Shanghai Daily Times Weekly El Espectador ColombiA: El Tiempo L Avenir Congo: Medias Congolais La Nacion CostA rica: Mercados & Tendencias Fraternite Matin Cote d ivoire: Banka Magazine CroAtiA: Poslovni Dnevnik Cyprus Mail Cyprus: Financial Mirror Ekonom Czech republic: Hospodářské Noviny Mladá Fronta Dnes Respekt Jean pisani-ferry how and why JOSCHKA FISCHERexamines BRINGS HIS PERSONAL INTEGRITY AND FERVOR integration has ended up pulling apart FOR BIG AND CONTROVERSIAL IDEASeurope TO GLOBAL PROBLEMS. and lays out how to re-energize the eu. A World of IDEAS _magazine_tisk_06.indd 44 Al Waqt Bahrain Tribune Holiday The Independent The New Nation Belorusy i Rynok Narodnaya Volia New Europe De Morgen De Tijd European Voice Knack L Echo La Libre Belgique New Europe Le Matinal Benin: Les Echos du Jour Los Tiempos BoliviA: bosnia HerzegovinA: BH Dani Dnevni Avaz Novi Reporter Oslobodenje Mmegi BotswAnA: Epoca Negocios BrAzil: Folha de São Paulo MundoRI O Estado de São Paulo O Globo Valor BAnglAdesh: Jean Pisani-Ferry People become accustomed to If we take a worldwide perspective, a level of comfort, and hope to it clearly did. In 1981, about four in move up to something even better. every ten people on the planet was When those expectations are disliving in the degrading condition appointed, it is hard to accept havthat the World Bank terms extreme ing less than one had in the past. poverty. Now, it is less than one in There may be a sense of shame, four. Even in absolute terms, de- and a loss of self-esteem, at being spite population growth, the num- poor, even in hard times. ber of extremely poor people fell during that period, from 1.9 bil- Nevertheless, the poor in induslion to 1.4 billion. There have been trialized nations will remain, in especially dramatic reductions in most cases, poor only by comparipoverty in countries like China and son with those who are better off. India. Does it matter so much that In the US, 97% of those classified a few Chinese and Indians have by the Census Bureau as poor become billionaires, if in the pro- own a color TV and a car. When cess hundreds of millions escaped Americans lose their jobs, even if WORL OF IDEAS 1/2009 extreme poverty? they have no assets, they still have some access to health care and But the prospects for a continuing food stamps. reduction in world poverty in 2009 are not good. If the recession cuts The situation of the 1.4 billion deep in the developed nations, people living in extreme poverty is many workers will lose their jobs. different. They are poor by an ab- Joyless Triumph Hasht-E Sobh ( Daily 8 AM ) Outlook Afghanistan The Daily Afghanistan La Tribune Le Quotidien d Oran Semanario Angolense Buenos Aires Herald Clarin Diario Perfil El Cronista El Economista La Nacion Mirador Nacional Revista Noticias Trait d Union Noyan Tepan Highlights The Armenian Times Zhamanak Yerevan Bhavan Australia The Age The Australian The Australian Financial Review Der Standard Boersen-Kurier Die Presse The Vienna Review Ictimai Zerkalo Brochure_redesign_08.indd odd :49:59

15 Project Syndicate o.s. sazba marketingových materiálů A WORLD OF IDEAS Another Roller Coaster Ride for Exchange Rates in 2009? CAMBRIDGE 2008 has been an exceptionally tumultuous year for exchange rates. The American dollar soared, the Japanese yen went into orbit, the euro fell to earth, and the British pound crashed, leaving a giant crater. Emerging-market currencies were hammered, as were commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Austravlian, and New Zealand dollars, and the South African rand. Indeed, the currency of any country that is significantly dependent on commodity exports has suffered. So, what will the New Year bring for exchange rates? A WORLD OF IDEAS While the only safe bet is continuing high volatility, we are at an unusual juncture where the short- and long-term trends appear to be very different. In the short run, the yen and the dollar continue to benefit from a flight to safety, as panicked investors seek a place to hide. The yen and dollar are also being bolstered as central banks elsewhere continue to cut interest rates towards zero, territory that the yen and dollar policy rates already occupy. Normally, short-run and long-run exchangerate trends point in the same direction. Indeed, a huge body of research shows that for most major currencies, the best forecast of next week s exchange rate, next month s exchange rate, or even next year s exchange rate is simply today s exchange rate. But times are hardly normal. The continuing financial crisis is putting steady upward pressure on the dollar thanks to its safe haven status. Commodity prices are plumbing new depths. Many emerging markets will also want to engage in countercyclical macroeconomic policy, but they are hemmed in by concerns of fiscal sustainability and fear of rampant inflation. European fiscal policy is constrained by the Maastricht Treaty, while European monetary policy is rather single-mindedly devoted to price stability. Yet the financial crisis will eventually end, as will the global recession. Neither will end soon, mind you, perhaps not for another seven or eight months, if not longer. But, when more normal growth does resume, the recent trends underpinning dollar and yen appreciation will disappear. Perhaps international investors will be grateful to the US for its aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus, which will accelerate sharply when President-elect Barack Obama takes office on January 20. But investors will still worry about what happens when the bills come due. policy as anyone. But China s rulers know that their highly repressed banking system is vulnerable as the country continues to pursue gradual financial liberalization, and that foreign currency reserves may be needed for recapitalization. True, China, with its vast foreign exchange reserves, has the wherewithal to spend as much on countercyclical macroeconomic driven by short-term, crisis-fueled fear. As markets normalize, surely investors will look around and realize that the US has vastly increased its debt in fighting the downturn, possibly by several trillion dollars. At the same time, today s falling prices (or deflation ) will eventually morph into inflation as aggressive monetary easing takes its toll on price stability. Admittedly, some of the major currency s movements during the past year can be re- garded as normalizing. On a purchasing power basis (a crude measure of what different currencies can buy in terms of real goods), the euro was absurdly overvalued at $1.60, just as the yen was absurdly undervalued at over 120 to the dollar. Commodity currencies had to come off their meteoric highs. PROJECT SYNDICATE S YEAR END REVIEW Thus, even though the United States and Japan will not be raising interest rates anytime soon, lower foreign rates still make the dollar and yen relatively more attractive. Commodity prices will continue to be soft, pulling down commodity currencies, and bolstering the yen especially, since resource-poor Japan is so reliant on commodity imports. Thus perhaps no region will be as expansionary as the US. For the moment, global investors cannot get enough of US treasury bills, as collapsing interest rates for short-term US securities demonstrates. But a lot of this demand is Thus, the past year s currency alignments have, to some extent, simply brought relative domestic price levels and exchange rates into better balance. But by now, emergingmarket countries exchange rates, and even more so commodity currencies, have probably overshot on the downside. Over the long run, globalization and economic convergence will resume, and emerging market and commodity currencies will have to strengthen. At the same time, the prospect of higher US inflation and massively higher US public debt levels must eventually weigh on the dollar, as does the still worrisome US trade deficit. As for the yen, it, too, will suffer from the continuing rise in Japan s public debt levels, which are already among the highest in the world. Continuing weakness in the Japanese economy will eventually hit the yen. If today s constellation of exchange rates represents some excessive dollar and yen appreciation, especially against emergingmarket currencies, when it will unwind? That depends on when you think the financial crisis will abate, and the timing of that is as hard to predict as exchange rates. But come it will. Then watch for the dollar and yen to boomerang. Copyright: Project Syndicate, KENNETH ROGOFF Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF. The Great Real Estate Bust of 2008 NEW HAVEN What brought on the collapse of home prices in 2008 that is the root of the financial crisis now enveloping much of the world? After the peak, lenders tightened their standards. When buyers find it difficult to finance home purchases, sellers have to cut the asking price. Home prices in the United States, as measured by the Standard & Poor s/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, have plummeted more than 40% in real inflation-adjusted terms in some major cities since the peak around the beginning of Nationally, including all cities, the fall is over 25%. The up and down of lending represents a credit cycle, and credit cycles have played a major role in economic fluctuations for centuries. In his 1873 book Lombard Street,, Walter Bagehot, the British businessman sinessman and editor of The Economist, described ribed these cycles perfectly. The boom just before the depression of the 1870 s that he described sounds a lot like what happened just ust before the current crisis. When credit expands, xpands, he wrote, The certain result is a bound und of national prosperity; the country leaps ps forward as if by magic. But only part of that at prosperity has a solid reason this pros-perity is precarious. The futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is now predicting declines of around 15% more before the prices bottom out in These are the market s forecasts and it is not a very liquid market. But those who make these forecasts are implying real declines, from peak to trough, of more than 50% in some places. Why are we seeing such big price drops? And why does the housing market in so many other countries now reflect similar conditions? The answer has both proximate and underlying causes. The proximate answer for the US is that a decline in lending standards helped people buy houses at ever-increasing prices before Freer lending meant that people were freer to bid up prices of homes to ridiculous levels. Shacks were selling for a million dollars. But the credit cycle was not the ultimate cause of the 1870 s depression or the crisis we are seeing today. Ultimately, one must always ask why lending standards were loosened and then tightened. The credit cycle is an amplification mechanism. The instability in the lending sector is always there, and the crisis manifests itself only if some precipitating factor triggers it. Moreover, the extreme weakening and then tightening of credit standards seems particularly prominent only in the US, while the housing boom-bust cycle is prevalent throughout much of the world. The precipitating factor that led to the current situation has to do with our evolving world culture, spread rapidly through enhanced media outlets and the Internet, and its perceptions of the markets. It has to do with the deep admiration of markets that has developed during the boom, in line with the efficient markets theory in academic finance. It became widely believed that financial markets are such sublime poolers of information that they represent a collective judgment that transcends that of any mere mortal. James Surowiecki s bestselling 2004 book, with the outrageous title The Wisdom of Crowds, pressed this idea forward at the very height of the real estate boom. The boom in the world s housing markets and stock markets between 2003 and 2006 was caused by this faulty idea, and the idea that investments in homes and equities are a sure route to wealth. It had become an article of faith that the value of both types of assets only goes up in the long run, and that it is foolish to try to time the market. It was sincerely believed, and supported by deep intuitive judgment, that interruptions in this upward trajectory could only be small and transient. People seemed to think that rapid appreciation in these markets had become a universal constant, like the speed of light. Nothing else ultimately explains lenders immense willingness, in the boom up to 2006, to lower their credit standards on home mortgages, regulators willingness to let them do it, rating agencies willingness to rate mortgage securities highly, and investors willingness to gobble them up. There is no theory in economics that provides a reason to think that prices in these markets can only go up. On the contrary, economic theorists have been puzzled by the historical rate of increase in the stock market, which they call the equity premium puzzle. They do not have 8 The Dismal Economist s Joyless Triumph a corresponding name for the behavior of the housing market, because, historically, its prices (correcting for inflation) have not generally gone up very much on average, until the post-2000 bubble. The booms in these markets can be traced substantially to the growth of the idea that one should always continually hold as many of these assets as possible, just as that you should drink green tea or eat dark chocolate every day for antioxidants. Such ideas create artificial demand but only for a while. After all, we no longer smoke cigarettes to prevent infections. People will believe many things if they have the impression that the rich and famous believe them, too. But their belief can suddenly be disrupted if plainly visible events contradict it. That is what is happening now, and 2009 will shape up as a year of even more profound disenchantment. MOSCOW In the spring of 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin was on top of the world. Oil and gas prices were sky high, with export revenues flooding the Kremlin s coffers. The country s once powerful military, which collapsed with the demise of communism in 1991, was being rebuilt. And Putin s handpicked successor, Dmitri Medvedev, had been eased into power, while Putin downshifted into the premiership. Economists are good at identifying underlying forces, but they are not so good at timing. The dynamics are, however, much as anticipated. America is still on a downward trajectory for 2009 with grave consequences for the world as a whole. For example, as their tax revenues plummet, state and local governments are in the process of cutting back their expenditures. American exports are about to decline. Consumer spending is plummeting, as expected. There has been an enormous decrease in (perceived) wealth, in the trillions, with the decline in house and stock prices. Besides, most Americans were living beyond their means, using their houses, with their bloated values, as collateral. That game is up. America would be facing these problems even if it were not simultaneously facing a financial crisis. America s economy had been supercharged by excessive leveraging; now comes the painful process of deleveraging. Excessive leveraging, combined with bad lending and risky derivatives, has caused credit markets to freeze. After all, when banks don t know their own balance sheets, they aren t about to trust others. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2008 ROBERT J. SHILLER is Professor of Economics at Yale University, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC and author of Subprime Solution: How the Global Financial Crisis Happened and What to Do about It. The Bush administration didn t see the problems coming, denied that they were problems 2009 when they came, then minimized their significance, and, finally, panicked. Guided by one of the architects of the problem, Hank Paulson, who had advocated for deregulation and allowing banks to take on even more leveraging, it was no surprise that the administration veered from one policy to another each strategy supported with absolute conviction, until minutes before it was abandoned for another. Even if confidence really were all that mattered, the economy would have sunk. Moreover, what little action has been taken has been aimed at shoring up the financial system. But the financial crisis is only one of several crises facing the country: the underlying macroeconomic problem has been made worse by the sinking fortunes of the bottom half of the population. Those who would JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ Joseph E. Stiglitz is a Professor of economics at Columbia University and recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics spend don t have the money, and those with the money aren t spending. America, and the world, is also facing a major structural problem, not unlike that at the beginning of the last century, when productivity increases in agriculture meant that a rapidly declining share of the population could find work there. Nowadays, increases in manufacturing productivity are even more impressive than they were for agriculture a century ago; but that means the adjustments that must be made are all the greater. Not long ago, there was discussion of the dangers of a disorderly unwinding of the global economy s massive imbalances. What we are seeing today is part of that un- winding. But there are equally fundamental changes in the global balances of economic power: the hoards of liquid money to help bail out the world lie in Asia and the Middle East, not in West. But global institutions do not reflect these new realities. Globalization has meant that we are increasingly interdependent. One cannot have a deep and long downturn in the world s largest economy without global ramifications. I had long argued that the notion of decoupling was a myth; the evidence now corroborates that view. This is especially so because America has exported not just its recession, but its failed deregulatory philosophy and toxic mortgages, so financial institutions in Europe and elsewhere are also confronting many of the same problems. Many in the developing world have benefited greatly from the last boom, through financial flows, exports, and high commodity prices. Now, all of that is being reversed. Indeed, it is the ultimate irony that money is now flowing from poor and well-managed economies to the US, the source of the global problems. The point of reciting these challenges facing the world is to suggest that, even if Obama and other world leaders do everything right, the US and the global economy are in for a difficult period. The question is not only how long the recession will last, but what the economy will look like when it emerges. stimulus (in excess of 2% of GDP), we will have a vicious negative spiral: a weak economy will mean more bankruptcies, which will push stock prices down and interest rates up, undermine consumer confidence, and weaken banks. Consumption and investment will be cut back further. Many Wall Street financiers, having received their gobs of cash, are returning to their fiscal religion of low deficits. It is remarkable how, having proven their incompetence, they are still revered in some quarters. What matters more than deficits is what we do with money; borrowing to finance high-productivity investments in education, technology, or infrastructure strengthens a nation s balance sheet. The financiers, however, will argue for caution: let s see how the economy does, and if it needs more money, we can give it. But a firm that is forced into bankruptcy is not un-bankrupted when a course is reversed. The damage is long-lasting. If Obama follows his instinct, pays attention to Main Street rather than Wall Street, and acts boldly, then there is a prospect that the economy will start to emerge from the downturn by late If not, the short-term prospects for America, and the world, are bleak. Copyright: Project Syndicate, Will it return to robust growth, or will we have an anemic recovery, à la Japan in the 1990 s? Right now, I cast my vote for the latter, especially since the huge debt legacy is likely to dampen enthusiasm for the big stimulus that is required. Without a sufficiently large 9 A WORLD OF IDEAS newspaper012.indd :47:03 newspaper012.indd :47:06 Taking the NEW YORK The coming year will be a narrative of tension a series of difficult choices between the imperatives of the present and those of tomorrow. How we resolve this tension will be the measure of our vision and our leadership. As a community of nations, we face three immediate tests in the coming year. The first has just begun. Not the global financial crisis, important as it is. I am speaking, here, about climate change, the one truly existential threat. We have only 12 short months until a key summit in Copenhagen, where world leaders will gather next December to reach an agreement to curb global warming. We need a deal that will extend, deepen, and strengthen the Kyoto Protocols. We need a new treaty for the twenty-first century that is balanced, inclusive, and comprehensive one that all nations can embrace. We took an important step in early December in Poznan, Poland, where climate ministers and experts met to hammer out a work plan toward the future. The negotiations were difficult. They promise to become even RICHARD N. BAN GEORGE JOSEPH S. NINA L. The Looming Crisis with Iran Taking the Long View Regulation Revisited Obama Meets the World Putin s Year of Living Dangerously When Barack Obama takes of ce in January, he will be greeted by many dif cult challenges, beginning with the acute economic crisis. But he will not have the luxury of focusing on this exclusively. He will also have to contend with an array of foreign policy challenges... The coming year will be a narrative of tension a series of dif cult choices between the imperatives of the present and those of tomorrow. How we resolve this tension will be the measure of our vision and our leadership... We are in the midst of the worst nancial crisis since the 1930 s. The salient feature of the crisis is that it was not caused by some external shock like OPEC raising the price of oil. It was generated by the nancial system itself... Many people will try to set President Barack Obama s priorities, but one person is sure to have a major effect. George W. Bush has bequeathed an unenviable legacy: an economic crisis, two wars, a struggle against terrorism, and problems across the Middle East and elsewhere... In the spring of 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin was on top of the world. Oil and gas prices were sky high, with export revenues ooding the Kremlin s coffers. The country s once powerful military, which collapsed with the demise of communism in page 3 page 4 page 10 page 4 page 5 HAASS KI-MOON SOROS NYE Our second test is economic. Clearly, we need a global stimulus. Major economies have responded to the current crisis with ambitious fiscal and monetary rescue plans. The emergency G-20 summit in Washington in November showed that governments are working together to coordinate policies. Those efforts were broadened at a more recent meeting in Doha. All of this is welcome. But we need to do more. Above all, we need to think boldly and freshly. If we are to spend our way out of the financial crisis, we should be smart about it. And that means that these expenditures must be investments. They must be sustainable, so that we are not merely throwing money at problems but, instead, are using those funds to lay the foundations of a more stable and prosperous future. China has shown leadership. Fully onethird of its recently announced $586 billion economic stimulus program will be chan- neled into green growth and infrastructure. The Chinese have seized an opportunity to address several challenges at once to create jobs, conserve energy, and combat climate change. The United States under President Barack Obama plans to do the same. These policymakers know that investment in alternative fuels and eco-friendly technologies will deliver a massive future payoff in terms of a safer environment, energy independence, and sustainable growth. But they also know that green investment can produce jobs and spur growth in the here and now. Other nations should follow suit. We will never usher in an era of sustainable prosperity in the absence of a big, global push, with all nations moving in the same direction. If ever there were a time for bold and ambitious vision a chance to chart a new and better path it is now. Our third test is a matter of pragmatic principle. Climate change and global finance are not our only crises. Indeed, they compound other threats: food insecurity, volatile energy and commodity markets, and the terrible persistence of poverty. No nation has been spared. But it is the poorest nations that feel these blows most sharply. If not handled correctly, today s financial crisis will become tomorrow s human crisis. Social unrest and political instability will grow, exacerbating all other problems. The danger, ultimately, is a cascading series of crises, each building on the others, with potentially devastating consequences for all. During the coming year, therefore, we must act in a spirit of global solidarity. Measures we take to deal with the financial crisis must be in the interests of all nations the poorest as well as the rich and powerful. Aid programs for developing nations should be considered a part of any global stimulus and long-term economic recovery plan. At the very least, that means not using the financial crisis as an excuse to reduce international aid and development assistance. We must honor our commitments under the Millennium Development Goals as a pragmatic as well as a moral responsibility. collective action. The challenges we face as a community of nations today are increasingly those of collaboration and cooperation: fighting climate change, rebuilding the global financial system, and promoting sustainable development. In this interconnected world, the challenge is to see the nexus among these three sets of problems. With vision, we will find solutions to each that are solutions to all. But it will take leadership to translate that vision into action, just as it will take leadership to balance our larger long-term interests against the fierce urgencies of now. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2008 BAN KI-MOON Ban Ki-moon is Secretary-General of the United Nations. We stand on the threshold of a new multilateralism. The pendulum of history is swinging back toward the United Nations and KHRUSHCHEVA CAMBRIDGE Many people will try to set President Barack Obama s priorities, but one person is sure to have a major effect. George W. Bush has bequeathed an unenviable legacy: an economic crisis, two wars, a struggle against terrorism, and problems across the Middle East and elsewhere. If Obama fails to fight these fires successfully, they will consume his political capital, but if all he does is fight them, he will inherit Bush s priorities. The new president must deal with the past and chart a new future at the same time. In second place must be America s two current wars. Obama campaigned on a promise to withdraw American combat brigades (but :46:47 Putin s Year of Living Dangerously Obama Meets the World Foremost on Obama s agenda will be the economic crisis, where his domestic and international priorities intersect. He will need to stimulate the economy and avoid protectionist pressures at home, while also taking the lead in restructuring the global financial system. Cooperation with others will be essential. That Bush convened a G-20 meeting in November sets a useful precedent of going beyond the G-7 to include emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil. ad space newspaper012.indd 1 more so. Some argued that, amid our current difficulties, we cannot afford to tackle climate change. I say we cannot afford not to. The future of the planet is at stake. Long View newspaper012.indd 4 not troops engaged in training and counterterrorism) from Iraq by mid Now the Bush administration and the Iraq government have signed an agreement for troop withdrawal by late These timetables effectiveness will depend on events on the ground, including political compromises inside Iraq and dialogue with Iraq s neighbors, but a clear sense of direction has been established. Afghanistan looks more difficult, given the Taliban s reinvigoration with help from groups in Pakistan. Obama has called for additional United States and NATO troops to stabilize the situation, but too many foreign troops will only increase Afghan nationalist reactions. We cannot simply shoot our way out of the problem. Increased training of the Afghan army and police, and a political dialogue inside the country and with neighbors will be important components of any solution. The third priority will be what Bush misleadingly called a global war on terrorism. The Obama administration will have to pursue the struggle against Al Qaeda, but should drop the war rhetoric. It makes little sense to declare war on a tactic, and experience has proven that the terminology merely reinforces the narrative that bin Laden seeks to promote, which is why Britain now avoids the phrase. A successful strategy against Al Qaeda will require close intelligence cooperation with other countries and policies that attract the support of mainstream Muslim opinion. The Middle East represents a fourth set of urgent priorities. Iran has now enriched enough uranium to produce (in principle) one nuclear bomb. Nonetheless, there remains time for a diplomatic initiative that includes Europe, Russia, and China. Given the unattractiveness of choosing between a pre-emptive attack on Iran or allowing Iranian nuclear weapons to destabilize the Gulf region, Obama has pledged to conduct a broad diplomatic dialogue with Iran without the preconditions that hampered Bush. But successful diplomacy will require repairing relations with Russia. Also high on the priority list in the Middle East will be to sustain and enhance Bush s efforts to bring about a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, and to encourage the incipient dialogue between Israel and Syria. Major issues will also arise in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, and relations with these areas will grow in importance. Fortunately, none of them became political footballs in the recent election campaign. In Asian policy, with the exception of North Korea, the Bush legacy is better, bequeathing good relations with the key states of Japan, China, and India. The Bush Doctrine of preemptive war and coercive democratization, coupled with a unilateralist style, was based on a flawed analysis of power in today s world. The paradox of American power is that the strongest country since the days of Rome cannot achieve its objectives acting alone. Obama s election has done much to restore American soft power, but he will need to follow up with policies that combine hard and soft power into a smart strategy of the sort that won the Cold War. Democracy promotion is better accomplished by soft attraction than hard coercion, and it takes time and patience. Here Obama should lead by example and remember the historical wisdom of being Reagan s shining city on a hill. Closing the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, would send such a signal. Right now, Bush s calls for democracy are heard as an imperial imposition of American institutions. We need less Wilsonian rhetoric about making the world safe for democracy, unless combined with John F. Kennedy s calls to make the world safe for diversity. A liberal realist policy should look to the long-term evolution of world order and realize the responsibility of the international system s strongest country to produce global public goods things people and governments around the world want but cannot otherwise attain as Britain did in the nineteenth century. America should similarly promote an open international economy and commons (seas, space, Internet), mediate international disputes before they escalate, and develop international rules and institutions. Early signals that the US will take the lead in dealing with global climate change will be an important start. The US can become a smart power by once again investing in global public goods. That means support for international institutions, aligning America with the cause of international development, promoting public health, increasing cultural exchanges, maintaining an open economy, and dealing seriously with climate change. Indeed, Obama s most important priority must be to show that America is back in the business of exporting hope rather than fear. MOSCOW In the spring of 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin was on top of the world. Oil and gas prices were sky high, with export revenues flooding the Kremlin s coffers. The country s once powerful military, which collapsed with the demise of communism in 1991, was being rebuilt. And Putin s handpicked successor, Dmitri Medvedev, had been eased into power, while Putin downshifted into the premiership. The United States, moreover, remained a perfect foil for a leader with pretensions to global leadership. The Bush administration s incoherent foreign policy included a plan to build a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, which allowed Putin to revive the Old Europe/New Europe divisions that began with the Iraq war, with this split appearing to enhance Russian influence on the continent. Copyright: Project Syndicate, Russia s seeming military revival also played a part in boosting the domestic economy. Arms sales, worth close to $8 billion, were again competing globally with Great Britain and the US, going to nearly 80 countries, including Venezuela, China, India, Algeria, Iran, Malaysia, and Serbia. And those arms sales were often closely tied to Putin s foreign assertiveness, with the Russian army training and holding exercises in many places for the first time, including Venezuela, as if in preparation for another Cuban Missile Crisis, with Hugo Chávez assuming the role of Fidel Castro. JOSEPH S. NYE Joseph S. Nye, a former US Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Clinton administration, is currently a professor at Harvard University. His latest book is The Powers to Lead :46:57 newspaper012.indd 5 So good did things seem that Russia suddenly discovered that, perhaps for the first time since the early days of the Soviet era, the country actually had some soft power. This first became apparent when the International Olympic Committee awarded the 2014 Winter Games to the Black Sea resort of Sochi. In 2007, Putin addressed the Olympic Committee (in English), and persuasively argued that the Games will play a major role in Russia s future. They will help Russia s transition as a young democracy. In May 2008, Russia won the world hockey championship, beatingg Canada. In June,, it almost won the Euro NINA L. KHRUSHCHEVA author of Imagining Nabokov: Russia Between Art and Politics, teaches international affairs at The New School and is senior fellow at the World Policy Institute in New York football championship, losing in the semi-finals to Spain. Next came the Eurovision Song Contest, an annual competition of pop (rarely first class) European singers, at which Russia s Dima Bilan gained first prize for his musical clip Believe. That, too, helped rekindle a sense of national pride, extending from the Kremlin to the streets. Russians habitually respond with black humor to events both good and bad, and the events of 2008 were no exception. One joke nicely encapsulates the hubris that Putin and his Kremlin allies felt: Putin and Medvedev discuss their newly found invincibility. Eurovision, hockey, soccer, smooth presidential transition what a lucky streak, muses Medvedev. Indeed, time to initiate World War III, enthuses Putin. But, as usual, pride precedes a fall. The fall began with an event that Putin perceived as a mighty triumph his blitzkrieg in August against Georgia. Yes, the Kremlin was able to smack down the uppity Mikheil Saakashvili s hope of reuniting his country by force. But the world saw in Russia s onslaught against so puny an antagonist a thuggish state determined to recapture its lost empire. All the post-cold War certainties in Europe melted away, and with them went Putin s reputation as a reliable manager of Russia s economy. Capital began to flee the country, which may not have mattered had the world economy not tanked in September. But tank it did, taking Russia s economy with it. The reserves that Russia accumulated during the oil boom years are steadily being drained away. With oil prices collapsing, this pool of resources won t be refilled quickly. That could prove to be devastating, because all of Russia s fiscal assumptions were based upon high oil prices continuing for years to come. Nevertheless, Putin is trying to spend his way out of the crisis. But such efforts are unlikely to be enough, because the heavy-handed state-dominated economy with ex-kgb agents now embedded at the top of most state companies lacks both the nimbleness and the diversification to recover speedily. Medvedev did the day after America s presidential election, exposed before the world the Kremlin s ham-handed ways once again. Moreover, with animosity between East and West at their highest since the Cold War s end, Russia s trading partners are anxiously looking for other options, which may mean that Putin has damaged Russia s long-term prospects for an export-led recovery as well. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2008 Indeed, the Georgian war antagonized not only the west, but also China, which has a vital strategic interest in maintaining the post-cold War geo-strategic settlement. China, after all, has no desire to see a Soviet Reunion on its border. Besides antagonizing China, the Georgian war also exposed the hollowness of Russia s military re-armament. Yes, the Russian army could smash Georgia and most of its ex-soviet neighbors, but its performance in Georgia shows that it remains the same lumbering, badly motivated outfit that it was in the 1990 s. Now that America is no longer saddled with a president loathed around the world, Putin has lost one of the key tools that had helped him boost Russia s international standing. Poking Bush in the eye was a fine thing to do in the eyes of many people, particularly in Europe. But to greet the elegant and popular President-elect Barack Obama with threats to station missiles on Europe s borders, as :46:59

16 Member of Čechofracht Group cechofracht_04_mensi_tisk.indd :21:07 MOuDRÁ LOGISTIKA Brozura_s raznici_02_mensi.indd :19: :19:12 Brozura_s raznici_02_mensi.indd :19:09 mailing_dovolena_03_tisk.indd :31:04 AWT Čechofracht a. s. sazba marketingových materiálů Asia America Africa d Labem Bohumín CZ EN Čechofracht Group International Logistics since 1952 Cleaning cks 6 oper Czech - Cargo zech ogis- CZ EN Silniční přepravy Road Transportation celovozové přepravy full truck load transportation mezinárodní sběrná služba: groupage service: Europe and Near East Evropa a Blízký Východ express transportation within Europe expresní přepravy po Evropě transportation in tanks cisternové přepravy road transportation of containers přepravy kontejnerů po silnici Námořní přepravy Sea Transportation celokontejnerové přepravy full container transports přepravy ve sběrných kontejnerech transports in groupage containers konvenční přepravy conventional transports přepravy nadrozměrných zásilek transport of oversized consignments Železniční přepravy Rail Transportation přeprava všech druhů komodit transport of all types of comodities vlastní systémové vlaky own system trains vlastní dispečerské řízení Komplexní vlastní a pronajaté logistické vozy služby movement provozování železničních vleček Comprehenshive přepravy v rámci Evropy, Logistic zemí SNS Services a na Dálný Východ Komplexe čištění vozů Logistikdienste cleaning railway tank wagons Letecké přepravy Air Transportation přepravy z/na všechna celní letiště transport from/to all customs airports přepravy door to door charterové přepravy transport door to door charter fl ights kombinované přepravy combined transports Logistika a skladování own dispatching control of wagon the fl eet of own and rented wagons railway sidings management transportation within Europe, to/from Far East and C.I.S. countries Logistics and Warehousing komplexní skladová logistika comprehensive logistic services vlastní skladové kapacity v ČR a SR skladování v režimu ADR International distribuce ze skladů po Evropě Logistics own warehouses capacities in CZ and SK warehousing of dangerous goods distribution from warehouses within Europe Čechofracht Group International Logistics since 1952 Silniční přepravy celovozové přepravy mezinárodní sběrná služba: Evropa a Blízký Východ expresní přepravy po Evropě Europe Slovakia Croatia Slovenia Poland cisternové Romania přepravy přepravy kontejnerů po silnici Letecké přepravy přepravy z/na všechna celní letiště přepravy door to door charterové přepravy kombinované přepravy Logistika a skladování komplexní skladová logistika vlastní skladové kapacity v ČR a SR skladování v režimu ADR distribuce ze skladů po Evropě Road Transportation full truck load transportation Europe World Europe Asia America Africa Australia groupage service: Europe and Near East Slovakia Croatia Slovenia Poland Romania express transportation within Europe transportation in tanks road transportation of containers Czech Republic Praha Olomouc Plzeň Liberec Ústí nad Labem Bohumín Námořní přepravy Sea Transportation Services Logistics Rail Transport Road Transport Dispatching Air Transport Sea Transport Express Transport Customs Clearance celokontejnerové přepravy full container transports přepravy ve sběrných kontejnerech transports in groupage containers konvenční přepravy conventional transports Specials Oversized loads Dangerous goods Combined transportation Cleaning of Trucks and Wagons přepravy nadrozměrných zásilek Services transport of oversized Logistics consignments Rail Transport Road Transport Dispatching Air Transport Sea Transport Express Transport Customs Clearance Specials Oversized loads Dangerous goods Combined transportation Cleaning of Trucks and Wagons Železniční přepravy Rail Transportation přeprava všech druhů komodit transport of all types of comodities vlastní systémové vlaky own system trains vlastní dispečerské řízení own dispatching control of wagon vlastní a pronajaté vozy movement Harbours Gdynia Szczecin Rijeka Koper Constanta provozování železničních vleček the fl eet of own and rented wagons Operated Devices 2670 wagons 116 trucks 6 logictic přepravy v rámci Evropy, zemí SNS railway warehouses sidings management 21 branches a na Dálný Východ transportation within Europe, to/from čištění vozů Far East and C.I.S. countries cleaning railway tank wagons Own Cargo Trains ADRIA (Czech - Rieka), ITALIA (Czech - Italy), CARPATHIA (Czech - Romania), SYLVANIA (Czech. Romania) Air Transportation transport from/to all customs airports transport door to door charter fl ights combined transports Logistics and Warehousing comprehensive logistic services own warehouses capacities in CZ and SK warehousing of dangerous goods distribution from warehouses within Europe World Europe Asia America Africa Australia Czech Republic Praha Olomouc Plzeň Liberec Ústí nad Labem Bohumín Operated Devices 2670 wagons 116 trucks 6 logictic warehouses 21 branches Own Cargo Trains ADRIA (Czech - Rieka), ITALIA (Czech - Italy), CARPATHIA (Czech - Romania), SYLVANIA (Czech. Romania) Own Cargo Trains ADRIA (Czech - Rieka), ITALIA (Czech - Italy), CARPAT International Logistics CZ EN DE máme více než 55 let mezinárodních We have 55 years of international Wir verfügen 55 Jahre internationale Erfahrungen in der Leistung von zkušeností v poskytování komplexních logistických služeb hensive logistic services komplexen Logistik-Diensten. experience in provision of compre- v rámci skupiny Čechofracht umíme Within Čechofracht Group, we can Innerhalb der Gruppe Čechofracht nalézt optimální řešení v kombinaci find an optimal solution in combination of road, sea, air and rail trans- in der Kombination von Straßen-, finden wir für Sie optimale Lösungen silniční, námořní, letecké a železniční přepravy portation See-, Luft- und Schienen-Transport. máme zastoupení ve většině zemí We have representations in most Wir haben Vertretungen in der Mehrheit der Länder Europas. Evropy countries in Europe kvalita našich služeb je ověřena certifikátem podle ISO 9001:2000 by the certificate ISO 9001:2008 Zertifikat gemäß ISO 9001:2008 e quality of our services is verified Die Qualität unserer Dienste ist mit jsme členy organizací FIATA, IATA a We are members of organizations bescheinigt. Air&Ocean Partners FIATA, IATA and Air&Ocean Partners. FIATA, IATA und Air&Ocean Part- Wir sind Mitglied der Organisationen ners. Harbours Gdynia Szczecin Rijeka Koper Constanta Own Cargo Trains ADRIA (Czech - Rieka), ITALIA (Czech - Italy), CARPAT International Logistics CZ EN DE máme více než 55 let mezinárodních We have 55 years of international Wir verfügen 55 Jahre internationale Erfahrungen in der Leistung von zkušeností v poskytování komplexních logistických služeb hensive logistic services komplexen Logistik-Diensten. experience in provision of compre- v rámci skupiny Čechofracht umíme Within Čechofracht Group, we can Innerhalb der Gruppe Čechofracht nalézt optimální řešení v kombinaci find an optimal solution in combination of road, sea, air and rail trans- in der Kombination von Straßen-, finden wir für Sie optimale Lösungen silniční, námořní, letecké a železniční přepravy portation See-, Luft- und Schienen-Transport. máme zastoupení ve většině zemí We have representations in most Wir haben Vertretungen in der Mehrheit der Länder Europas. Evropy countries in Europe kvalita našich služeb je ověřena certifikátem podle ISO 9001:2000 by the certificate ISO 9001:2008 Zertifikat gemäß ISO 9001:2008 e quality of our services is verified Die Qualität unserer Dienste ist mit jsme členy organizací FIATA, IATA a We are members of organizations bescheinigt. Air&Ocean Partners FIATA, IATA and Air&Ocean Partners. FIATA, IATA und Air&Ocean Part- Wir sind Mitglied der Organisationen ners. Čechofracht a.s. patří v České republice k největším poskytovatelům služeb v oblasti logistiky a spedice. Naše služby jsou ověřeny více než 55ti lety zkušeností na mezinárodním trhu a certifi kátem ISO 9000:2008. Nabízíme: mezinárodní silniční přepravy po Evropě, distribuci po České republice, námořní přepravy v kontejnerech a sběrnou službou, letecké přepravy, skladování v našich logistických centrech. Čechofracht a. s. patří v České republice k největším poskytovatelům služeb v oblasti logistiky a spedice. Naše služby jsou ověřeny 55ti lety zkušeností na mezinárodním trhu a certifikátem ISO 9000:2001. Nabízíme: mezinárodní silniční přepravy po Evropě, distribuci po České Republice, námořní přepravy v kontejnerech a sběrnou službou, letecké přepravy, skladování v našich logistických skladech. Jedeme na sever se slevou až 20% Pošlete svou zásilku s Čechofrachtem a vyhrajte zájezd v hodnotě Kč MOuDRÁ LOGISTIKA

17 4. NABÍDKOVÁ CENA V ČLENĚNÍ DLE ZADÁVACÍ DOKUMENTACE ORIGINÁL a) Sazba a tisk výroční zprávy Cena za sazbu a tisk bez DPH: Kč/1 ks, Kč/2 ks b) Věstník SÚKL Cena za sazbu bez DPH: Kč/1 ks, Kč/24 ks c) Nežádoucí účinky informační zpravodaj Cena za sazbu bez DPH: 878 Kč/1 ks, Kč/8ks d) Farmakoterapeutické informace Cena za sazbu bez DPH: 350 Kč/1 ks, Kč/24 ks Celková nabídková cena: Cena celkem bez DPH: Kč Sazba DPH 20 %: Kč Cena celkem s DPH: Kč

18 5. PODROBNÝ POPIS A SPECIFIKACE NABÍZENÉHO PLNĚNÍ Předmětem veřejné zakázky je příprava odborných publikací SÚKL pro tisk a jejich zpracování do PDF pro možnost stahování z webu SÚKL. Všechny publikace SÚKL mohou obsahovat grafy, tabulky a diagramy. Všechny publikace budou zachovávat stávající podobu, kterou je možné zhlédnout na webových stránkách SÚKL, viz Konkretizace zpracování jednotlivých publikací: a) Sazba a tisk výroční zprávy - celkem 2 ks v období 04/2011 až 04/ výroční zpráva v rozsahu maximálně 80 stran bude dodavatelem připravena do zadavatelem dodaného layoutu. - sazba, úpravy dodaného layoutu, příprava grafů a tabulek dle dodaného vzoru. - kvalita: obálka papír křída, 250g/m2, matný lak (1. a 4. strana obálky), vnitřní strany, křída 100g/m2, vazba typu V2 - tisk 200 kusů výroční zprávy - doprava zadavateli - náhled současné podoby na Termín pro zpracování: do 20 pracovních dnů od dodání podkladů zadavatelem b) Věstník SÚKL - periodicita 1x za měsíc (celkem 24 ks v období 04/2011 až 04/2013) - grafická úprava a vytvoření dvou pdf souborů ke stažení a v tiskové kvalitě - rozsah cca 60 stran - součástí jsou i hypertextové odkazy - náhled současné podoby na Termín pro zpracování: do 5 pracovních dnů od dodání podkladů zadavatelem c) Nežádoucí účinky informační zpravodaj - periodicita 4x ročně (celkem 8 ks v období 04/2011 až 04/2013) - grafická úprava a vytvoření dvou pdf souborů ke stažení a v tiskové kvalitě - rozsah cca 10 stran - součástí budou i hypertextové odkazy - náhled současné podoby na Termín pro zpracování: do 5 pracovních dnů od dodání podkladů zadavatelem d) Farmakoterapeutické informace - periodicita 1x za měsíc (celkem 24 ks v období 04/2011 až 04/2013) - grafická úprava a vytvoření dvou pdf souborů ke stažení a v tiskové kvalitě - rozsah cca 4 strany

19 - Farmakoterapeutické informace musí zachovat stávající vzhled zcela beze změn - náhled současné podoby na Termín pro zpracování: do 5 pracovních dnů od dodání podkladů zadavatelem Doba plnění veřejné zakázky: Předpokládané zahájení: 04/2011 Předpokládané ukončení: 04/2013

20 6. NÁVRH SMLOUVY Grafická úprava, zpracování elektronické podoby a tisk publikací SÚKL