Economic aspects of rural areas sustainable development

Transkript

1 Economc aspects of ual aeas sustanable development Ekonomcké aspekty udžtelného ozvoje uálních oblastí J. TVRDOŇ Czech Unvesty of Agcultue, Pague, Czech Republc Abstact: The atcles deals wth poblems of dffeent development of ual aeas and the factos. In usual analyss of ual development, the poston of agcultue s ntepeted n boad ange of opnons fom the neglectable ole to ts non-substtutablty n ual economcs. The atcle follows stong sdes of these concepts at smultaneous educton of the weaknesses and s focused on poblems of nvestgaton of the mutual nfluence of endogenous as well as exogenous ndustes on ual egons. Appled appoach leads to settng up model of economc base and devng of multplcatos of ual development. It s obvous fom the analyss that nonagcultual subsdy pogams suppotng development of the othes ndustes n egon have ndect nfluence upon ts agcultue too. In dffeent egons, ths nfluence vaes due to the factos nvestgated n the pape. Key wods: egonal economcs, economc base models, multplcatos of economc development, employment, nte ndustes elatonshps Abstakt: Článek se zabývá poblémy ůzného ozvoje venkovských oblastí a jejch faktoy. V obvyklé analýze je pozce venkovského ozvoje zemědělství v šoké paletě názoů od zanedbatelné ole až k její nezastuptelnost ve venkovské ekonomce. V pác jsou uvedeny slné stánky těchto pojetí př současné edukc jejch slabých stánek a je zaměřená na poblémy výzkumu vzájemného vlvu endogenních a exogenních odvětví na venkovské egony. Aplkovaný přístup vede k vytvoření modelu ekonomcké báze a odvození multplkátoů venkovského ozvoje. Z analýzy je zřejmé, že nezemědělské dotační pogamy podpoující ozvoj jných odvětví v egonu mají nepřímý vlv také na zemědělství. V ůzných egonech je tento vlv ůzný v závslost na sledovaných faktoech. Klíčová slova: egonální ekonomky, model ekonomcké báze, multplkátoy ekonomckého ozvoje, zaměstnanost, mezodvětvové vztahy INTRODUCTION In the last ten yeas of tansfomaton of the economy, Czech agcultue has been expeencng a numbe of postve changes n buldng up of backgound fo effcent maket agaan secto. Howeve, the pesent model of economy was fomed n a dffeent hstocal context,.e. n dffeent economc, socal and cvlzaton condtons n tmes when thee seemed to be enough esouces and space fo unlmted gowth, fo unlmted consumpton of the esouces and unlmted poducton of waste. Accodng to the pesent knowledge, howeve, the manknd s aleady facng and exceedng the lmts of the Planet beang capacty whch makes ths economc system unsustanable and eplacng t wth an altenatve system that espects sustanable development pncples s an mpotant pecondton fo pesevng dvesty of lfe foms and favoable envonment fo lfe of the humans. Moe and moe economsts ealze the lmtaton and fnteness of the esouces that economy uses fo gowth of poducton, cash-flows and consumpton. Accodng to some economsts, economy s ntepeted as non-gowng system and ts quanttatve gowth cannot contnue foeve. It does not mean gong back to smple cvlzaton habts but effcent management of natual esouces, takng fom the natue only as much as t s able to egeneate, usng eco-effectve technologes, ecyclng wastes to the maxmum extent and educng useless consumpton. The state of natual esouces s sgnfcantly nfluenced by agcultual actvtes whch ae not equally spead ove the aea of state, but dffeently n ndvdual egons. Nevetheless, agcultual poducton s 12 AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1): 12 19

2 a pat of ndustes mx almost n evey egon. Fom ths vewpont, agcultue ndusty s n nteactons wth the othe ndustes n each egon. The types of those nteactons ae multdmensonal, but fo the lmted scope of ths atcle only two, but basc elatonshps wll be analyzed. AIMS AND METHODOLOGY The man goal of the pape s to nvestgate mutual ntedependency between agcultue and othe ndustes n dffeent egons n the Czech Republc on the base theoy of egonal development (Tvdoň 1994). The wokng hypothess follows these assumptons: Rual aeas ae pat of all admnstatve egons of the Czech Republc Economc and envonmental pefomance of agcultue s ntelnked wth the total egon economc and envonmental pefomance Fo explanaton of ths elatonshp, model of economc base can be used Level of employment n egons depends on the natonal ate of employment and stuctue of ndustes n that egon. Jont backgound fo these assumptons s explaned by (Isad 199) and othes (Stllwell 1992) who suppose that gowth n one egonal ndusty s the functon of gowth of all ndustes n that egon. If the est of economy opeates well, one ndusty n a ole of nput fom those ndustes s pedetemned to opeate successfully too and vce vesa. Due to the lack of data of ual egons, data publshed by the Czech Statstcal Offce fo 13 admnstatve egons wee used (Statstcká očenka 23). Appled methods wee pedetemned by nvestgated the poblems whch wee accodng to the above mentoned stuctue, but n all pats t was dealt, even though n a dffeent ate, wth qualtatve analyss, quanttatve analyss, synthess, compason, method of analogcal conclusons, nom method, ntevewng, elaboaton of documents and othes. RESULTS OF ANALYSIS Specfcaton of Economc Base Model (EBM) In the EBM, all ndustes of gven egon ae devded nto two goups on the hypothess of hgh dependency of egonal pefomance measued by ncome and employment upon the basc secto whch delves ts poduct and sevces to buyes of othes egons. Non-basc secto povdes poducts and sevces fst of all nsde of the gven egon. To ths defnton, agcultual ndusty fts the most. To deve the multplcato of economc base, total ncome of egon can be devded nto two pats: T = S + B (1) T = total ncome of egon S = Income of non basc secto B = Income of basc secto The amount of ncome ceated by non-basc secto depends on ncome ceated by egon as a total. The geate the ncome, the geate the demand fo poducts and sevces povded n famewok of gven egon. S = st (2) Fom (1) and (2) t can be deved 1 T B. 1 s whee 1/(1 s) s multplcato of economc base. If fo example T/B = 1.5, ncome ncease n basc secto by 1 CZK wll stmulate total ncome ncease of egon by 15 CZK. Multplcato of employment can by deved smlaly by substtuton data of employment fo data of ncome. Whee consdeng also nfluence of othe facto on the total egon ncome, the pevous model can be adjusted: (3) S = s + s 1 T (4) Fom (1) and (4), t can be deved: s T 1 s 1 1 B 1 s 1 Fo devng both multplcatos, egesson models can be appled. Specfcaton of egonal stuctue of employment analyss (RSEA) Unde the hypothess that economc stuaton of egon sgnfcantly nfluences ts agcultue, the followng analyss can specfy the mpact of ndusty stuctue upon employment development. Applcaton of the RSEA follows these elatonshps (5) AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1):

3 1. Regonal employment gowth (g ) g = egonal employment n ndusty = numbe of employed n all ndustes n gven egon t, o = last and efeence yea of analyzed tme peod 2. Natonal employment gowth (g n ) g n n t t n n 1 1 Specfcaton of vaables and ndces s the same as n (6) only nstead of egonal level, vaables ae fom the maco level. 3. Regonal employment gowth n natonwde employment gowth ate g n t n / n 1 Vaable (g n ) expesses gowth of egonal employment f each ndusty had the same gowth ate as that on the natonwde scale. Fom these elatonshps, t follows: Regonal employment gowth = Gowth nduced by othe factos + Gowth followng ndusty mx + Natonwde gowth ate mpact (6) (7) (8) g = (g ) + (g n ) + g n (9) The hghe the component g n the hghe the gowth of employment n egons. Expesson (g n ) manfests stuctual component mpact of ndusty stuctue n gven egon on employment. If ndusty stuctue suppots employment, the expesson s postve (g n > g n ). The opposte means that ndusty stuctue s not sutable fo employment development. Expesson (g ) manfests that pat of gowth whch was nduced by othe factos not ncluded n the model. Postve values mean that employment n egon s faste than t would be f employment gowth n evey ndusty wee the same as at the natonal level. Devng and analyss of the model s paametes Impact analyss of egonal economc development on ncome level n agcultue Fo the analyss, models (2) and (4) wee specfed wth paametes enablng to ank egons accodng to the nfluence of the total egon ncome level upon the ncome level n agcultue consdeed as non-basc secto (Tvdoň 23). Table 1 pesents the output. Results of calculatons ae anked up accodng to sze of t at ow 1. Fgues at ow 2 ae multplcatos m accodng to equaton 3 explanng total ncome change n the gven egon nduced by unt change of ncome n basc secto. Fom t, ow 3 s calculated and the esults expess what wll nduce ncome change by 1 CZK of basc entepses n agcultue. In the egon Vysočna fo example, ncome wll decease by 43 CZK and t wll ncease ncome n agcultue of the Lbeec egon by 44 CZK. If egonal economy mpoves, ncome level of agcultue ndusty goes up by t tmes specally n the Vysočna and Jhočeský egons. The othe esults ae documented by followng Fgue 1. Moe elable model s the elatonshp (4) whch admts also othe nfluences expessed by t values fo ndvdual egons. Fo the estcted sze of the atcle, t values ae not pesented and only t 1 paametes ae analyzed accodng to Table 2. Table 1. Stuctual paamete t of equaton S = tt, multplcatos and ncome changes Regon t = s 1/(1 t) = m Income change n S Vysočna Jhočeský Plzeňský Padubcký Středočeský Jhomoavský Kalovaský Lbeecký AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1): 12 19

4 Fgue 1. Paamete t of equatons S = tt (asx x t, asx y egon) Vysona Jhoeský Plzeský Kaje - 22 Padubcký Stedoeský Jhomoavský Kalovaský Lbeecký Table 2. Stuctual paamete t 1 of equatons S = t + t 1 T, multplcatos, ncome changes Regon t 1 = s 1 1/(1 t 1 ) = m 1 Income change n S Vysočna Jhomoavský Plzeňský Středočeský Jhočeský Padubcký Lbeecký Kalovaský The analyss of the esults s analogcal to model (2) but fo all equatons, R 2 ndcatos s ceated to the level Income ncease by 1 CZK n basc ndustes has symmetcal mpact upon ncome level n agcultue apox. half of egons manfest decease of agcultual ncome wheeas the second half shows ncome ncease. Fo example n the egon Vysočna, thee s decease of CZK n agcultual ncome, wheeas the egon and manfest an ncease of agcultual ncome by 15.6 CZK, espectve, 17.4 CZK. Paametes t 1 fo all egons ae pesented n Fgue 2. Income level m = t /(1 t 1 ) whch emans on that level even though ncome level of basc secto wll go up fall down. Fo explanaton of changes n the egon ankng, t would be necessay to analyze moe compehensve database than those whch ae avalable and a wde scope of the pape. Impact analyss of egonal ndusty stuctue upon employment development Regon economc pefomance can be analyzed accodng to many ndcatos but at least two of them Vysona Jhomoavský Plzeský Stedoeský Jhoeský Padubcký Lbeecký Kalovaský Fgue 2. Paamete t 1 of equaton S = t + t 1 T (asx x gt, asx y egon) AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1):

5 Stedoeský Jhomoavský Lbeecký Vysona Plzeský Jhoeský Padubcký Kalovaský Fgue 3. Regon gowth ates (asx x gt, asx y egon) play a non-substtutable ole. One of them ncome level s nvestgated n pevous chapte, second one employment development dung tme peod and ts detemnants ae analyzed n the followng pat of the pape. Fo that am, ndcatos (6), (7), (8) wee calculated and used fo decomposton of employment gowth accodng to model (9). Specfcaton of employment gowth n egons Accodng to elaton (6), ndcato g fo tme peod was calculated and when anked fom the vewpont of ts sze followng esults ae pesented. Fom the Table 3, t s obvous that the numbe of employed people fell down n all egons but wth lage dffeences. In the Středočeský egon fo example, employment decease s 6.24% wheeas n the egon t was 26.35%. Gowth ates fo all egons ae pesented n Fgue 3. Specfcaton of potental employment gowth n egons Accodng to elaton (8) ndcato g n n the gven tme peod was calculated and when anked fom the vewpont of ts sze followng esults ae pesented. The Table 4 llustates sgnfcant dffeences n the potental egon employment gowth. In the egon Kalovaský employment gowth could be 27.55%, wheeas n the only 5.65%. Potental gowth ates fo all egons can be clealy seen n Fgue 4. Table 3. Regonal gowth ate g Table 4. Potental employment gowth Regon g Regon g n Středočeský Jhomoavský Lbeecký Vysočna Plzeňský Jhočeský Padubcký Kalovaský Kalovaský Lbeecký Vysočna Padubcký Plzeňský Jhočeský Středočeský Jhomoavský AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1): 12 19

6 3 25 Fgue 4. Potental gowth ates (asx x gn, asx y egon) Kalovaský Lbeecký Vysona Padubcký Plzeský Jhoeský Stedoeský Jhomoavský Specfcaton of natonal economy employment gowth Accodng to elatonshp (7), ndcato g n was calculated n the gven tme peod and ts value s equal to 1.69% When ndcatos (6), (7), and (8) wee specfed, detemnants of employment gowth accodng to elatonshp (9) can be analyzed. Fo that pupose, thee components of gowth ate wee calculated and all of them ae pesented n the Table 5. Fom the Table 5, t s obvous that ndusty estuctung n all egons has taken place successfully and, f no othe negatve factos compehensvely quantfed n column A would opeate, n all egons the ate of employment could be postve see column B and elatvely at a vey hgh level. The weakest mpact of the othe factos s n the Středočeský egon ( %) wheeas n the Kalovaský egon s moe than thee tmes hghe ( %). Results fo all egons ae ncluded n Table 6. Except fst two egons Středočeský and Jhomoavský dffeences between the eal and potental gowth ates ae moe o less the same aound 3%. A moe llustatve vews n nte-egonal dffeences s povded by Fgue 5. Table 5. Decomposton of egonal gowth ates Regon Regonal employment gowth Gowth nduced by othe factos + Gowth followng ndusty mx + Natonwde gowth ate ímpact g (g ) + (g n ) + g n g = A + B + C Středočeský Padubcký Lbeecký Vysočna Jhomoavský Plzeňský Jhočeský Kalovaský AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1):

7 Table 6. Gowths of employment nduced by othe facto Regon g Regon g Středočeský Jhočeský Jhomoavský Lbeecký Padubcký Plzeňský Kalovaský Vysočna On the othe hand n the Kalovaský egon, thee s elatvely vey sutable ndusty composton, but ths potental s seveely devaluated by othe factos. The lowest potental gowth due to ndusty stuctue s n the egon. The followng table bngs esults of calculaton fo all egons. The data of the table bng moe nfomaton n the gaph fom whch follows. In smla sequence of egons, t can be expected that agcultue gowth n egons wll follow. If gowth of employment bngs ncome nto the egons and f negatve mpact of the othe facto s mnmzed, agcultual ncome, as t was poved n pat 3, wll se as well. DISCUSSION Pevous analyses documented that the poston and economc esults of agcultue depend upon the Stedoeský Jhomoavský Plzeský Vysona Jhoeský Lbeecký Padubcký Kalovaský Fgue 5. Gowth of employment nduced by othe factos (asx x g, asx y egon) Kalovaský Lbeecký Vysona Padubcký Plzeský Jhoeský Stedoeský Jhomoavský Fgue 6. Gowth nduced by ndusty mx (asx x, asx y egon) 18 AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1): 12 19

8 Table 7. Gowth followng ndusty mx Regon g n Kalovaský Lbeecký Vysočna Padubcký Plzeňský Jhočeský Středočeský 1.18 Jhomoavský the best condton fo agcultue development ae n the Kalovaský and Lbeecký egons and the weakest ae n the Jhomoavský and egons. The poston of othe egons n agcultual development fts to the Table 7 and t means that the best condtons fo agcultue development fall down fom the Kalovaský egon to Lbeecký, and afte that n the followng ankng. Regonal agcultue futue economc pefomance can be theefoe classfed n ths ode: Regon Kalovaský, Lbeecký, Vysočna, Padubcký,,, Plzeňský,, Jhočeský,, Středočeský, Jhomoavský and. Postve values of the potental gowth ate dmnshed by the natonal economy gowth mean that ndusty estuctung ceates backgound fo favoable development also n futue and fo sustanable agcultue n pespectves. egon economy as a total. The pesented analyss s based on the hypothess of hgh coelaton between ncome level pe labo foce and eal egonal GDP. Fo futhe analyss, t wll be necessay to have data fo egonal GDP and smultaneously of ts splttng nto basc and non-basc ndustes ncludng labo foce dstbuton nto these two sectos. That data base enables also devng nput output model and nvestgaton of the components of GDP on the level and nteactons. CONCLUSION The analyss documented hgh dependency of agcultue economc pefomance upon the egonwde development. If no negatve factos opeate, REFERENCES Isad W. (199): Method of Regonal Analyss. MIT Unvesty Pess, Boston. Stllwell F. (1992): Regonal Economc Polcy. Macmllan, London. Tvdoň J. (1994): Postoová egonální ekonomka. In: Svatoš M. a kol.: Ekonomka agáního sektou, ČZU, Paha. Tvdoň J. (23): Econometc Modellng. ČZU, Paha. Statstcká očenka 23 kajů: Jhočeský, Jhomoavský, Kalovaský,, Lbeecký,,, Padubcký, Plzeňský, Středočeský,, Vysočna, (23). ČZU, Paha. Aved on 2 nd Decembe 24 Contact addess: Pof. Ing. Jří Tvdoň, CSc., Česká zemědělská unvezta v Paze, Kamýcká 129, Paha 6-Suchdol, Česká epublka tel , e-mal: tvdon@pef.czu.cz AGRIC. ECON. CZECH, 51, 25 (1):