Quo Vadis: Výzvy 21. století

Transkript

1 Quo Vadis: Výzvy 21. století Zdeněk Tůma 11. Června 2014 * The presentation was prepared with the support of OGResearch, company for economic modelling and forecasting

2 Hlavní témata Reálná konvergence české ekonomiky se zastavila, limity dalšího růstu Pravidla pro hospodářskou politiku Cílování inflace Fiskální kompakt a jeho mutace Role finančního sektoru a jeho budoucnost Nová finanční architektura Regulace a komplexita Bankovní unie 2

3 The Czech economy was converging Source: Eurostat 3

4 but slowly compared to peers Source: Eurostat 4

5 Fundamentals worsening: bureaucracy and corruption World Economic Forum The Global Competetiveness Report PL 42th CZ 46th HU 63th SK 78th WB Ease of Doing Business Ranking SK 46th HU 54th PL 55th CZ 64th Source: WB

6 Fundamentals worsening: bureaucracy and corruption Source: World Economic Forum

7 Fundamentals worsening: significant demographic risk Source: Eurostat 7

8 Fundamentals worsening: Although the debt is low, it has been growing relative to peers, but without an effect on convergence Source: Eurostat

9 Despite rising debt levels and low growth, borrowing costs remain at record lows Source: Bloomberg

10 Going forward Can fiscal policy do more? Given that historically it has not been very effective in spurring growth Can monetary policy do more? Given that conventional tools are exhausted Weakening of the exchange rate using interventions Adopting the Euro 10

11 The power of fiscal policy to spur the economy seems exhausted Source: European Commission

12 but some neighbors have run much higher deficits in the post-crisis period Source: Eurostat

13 Monetary policy powers have too been exhausted some time ago Source: Bloomberg 13

14 Unconventional tools? other floaters have depreciated more 14

15 Hard to avoid euro The euro is essentially a political, not economic, concept The euro project has unfortunately accumulated expectations and wishes that it could not have possibly delivered This was to be expected: monetary arrangements cannot guarantee real improvements Moreover, by nourishing unfounded expectations it could have contributed to delays in structural reforms and other necessary policy changes

16 Price Stability: delivered in EA, but also elsewhere Source: Eurostat, OECD

17 Maastricht criteria on inflation rates Inflation in selected EMU countries Before the Euroadoption inflation was brought down in many countries quickly Source: Bulir, Hurnik (2008)

18 evaporated soon after the entry. Inflation in selected EMU countries Inflation convergence was unsustainable Inflation expectations could have remained high Source: Bulir, Hurnik (2008)

19 Two examples Source: Eurostat

20 Disciplining effect on the rest of EU strong, but price converegence limited Source: Eurostat

21 Reducing Macroeconomic Volatility By removing the exchange rate as a major source of volatility in many economies However, one-size-fit-all monetary policy could exacerbate other shocks and increase volatility at the same time

22 Inflation volatility Source: Eurostat, OECD

23 Real volatility Source: Eurostat

24 Pravidla pro hospodářskou politiku Cílování inflace Kotva pro měnovou politiku (obdobně fixní kurz či currency board) Kvantifikace cíle: proč 2% a nikoli 4% nebo dokonce zápornéčíslo? Fiskální pravidla Jsou Maastrichtská kritéria překonána? Je Fiskální kompakt kredibilní, smysl penalizace a vynutitelnosti 24

25 Finanční krize, regulace, komplexita Finanční svět je velmi komplexní, máme proti tomu bojovat komplexní regulatorikou nebo hledat jednoduché stopky pro rizika? Vznik nové finanční architektura Vlna nové regulace Probíhající strukturální změny v bankovních sektorech 25

26 Problém Následek Nadměrnériziko(obchodování, půjčování, financování) Komplexnost(neadekvátnímanagement, monitoring, dohled a možnosti řešení) Omezená schopnost absorbovat ztráty Subvence uvnitř skupin Neefektivní řízení a kontrola Vzájemná propojenost Omezené možnosti řešení(resolvability) Zacyklení mezi bankami a státním dluhem Neadekvátní institucionální rámec v EU Velký důraz na čistě finanční operace Distorze v konkurenčním prostředía implicitní subvence 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 26

27 Současný stav: přehled evropských dohledových institucí monitoring a varování na makro úrovni ESRB European Systemic Risk Board ESFS European System of Financial Supervisors ESA European Supervisory Authorities ERSC European Systemic Risk Council (ČNB) Národní regulátoři EBA European Banking Authority EIOPA European Insurance and Occupations Pension Authority ESMA European Securities Markets Authority monitoring a varování na makro úrovni dohled a vynucování implementace do ČR legislativy vydávání regulací interpretační autorita harmonizace

28 Přehled současných regulatorních změn (pouze vybrané změny) EBA MiFID 2 CRD4 CRD III (EU ) Liquidity Coverage Ratio FSB (UK) Net Stable Funding Ratio Basel 2.5/3 Řízení a správa bank Odměňování Likvidita Kapitálová přiměřenost CRD4 Pravidla pro Obchodní portfolio EBA stress testy SIFI přirážky Ratingové agentury Dodd-Frank Act Národní regulátoři EBA, ESMA Basel Committee IFRS FINREP COREP MiFID 2 Dohled a zveřejňování informací PRIPs (Packaged Retail Investment Products) Retail Distribution Review (UK) Jednání se zákazníky MiFID 2 EMIR Dodd- Frank Regulované oblasti Tržní infrastruktura Krátké prodeje Securities Law Direction Finanční kriminalita Strukturální změny AML EU Crisis Management Recovery and Resolution Plan (UK) Dodd-Frank Volcker Rule Shadow Banking High-level Expert Group (EU) ICB (Independent Commission on Banking, UK) KYC (Know Your Customer) FATCA

29 Hlavní oblasti dopadu CRD IV Business Risk ALM Produkty model Management Pilíř I IT systémy Governance Reporting Nové položky kapitálu/ odečitatelné položky X X X X X Alternative Valuation Adjustment X X X X CVA/CRR X X X X X WWR X X X X Nové koeficienty pro SMI expozice Nové podrozvahové položky v rizikových kategoriích X X X X X X X X X Pilíř II Sankce a jiná správní opatření X X X Nové orgány a jejich organizační zařazení Nové požadavky na rozsah kontrolníčinnosti IA Pilíř III X X X X Nové požadavky na reporting informací o kapitálu Nové požadavky na reporting informací o kapitálových požadavcích Likvidita/Pákový poměr X X X X LCR/NFSR X X X X X X

30 Finanční krize a nová architektura Pochybení na mnoha úrovních: regulace vs lidský faktor Finanční svět je komplexní: lze proti tomu bojovat komplexní regulací nebo máme hledat jednoduché stopky pro rizika Strukturální změny v bankovním sektoru: probíhají 30

31 Nárůst přeshraničních expozic Cross-border assets and liabilities of euro area banks Source: Shin (2012). 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 31

32 Evropský bankovní sektor je mnohem větší ve srovnání s USA a Japonskem Size of EU, US and Japanese banking sectors (2010) EU USA Japan Total bank sector assets ( trillion) Total bank sector assets/gdp 349% 78% 174% Top 10 bank assets ( trillion) Top 10 bank assets/gdp 122% 44% 91% Notes: Top 6 banks for Japan. Source: European Banking Federation (2011). 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 32

33 Aktiva bank jsou často vyšší než národní HDP Total assets of EU and US banking groups (2011, in % of GDP) Source: Data from SNL Financial. Eurostat for GDP data. 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 33

34 Velikost bankovních sektorů v EU27 Notes: Assets as of March 2012, GDP data for end Based on aggregate balance sheet of monetary financial institutions (MFIs). Vertical axis cut at 1000% (ratio for Luxembourg is 2400%). Data on MFI includes money market funds. Source: ECB data. Eurostat for GDP data. Total assets of MFIs in the EU, by country (in % of national GDP) 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 34

35 Velká diverzita ve strukturách bankovních sektorů Total assets held by small, medium, and large domestic banks andforeign subsidiaries and branches (as % of total assets), 2011 Source: ECB consolidated banking data. 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 35

36 Some banks focus more on trading activities Total assets held for trading (as % of total assets), 2011 Source: Data from SNL Financial. 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 36

37 Velká státní podpora bankám Parliamentary approved amounts of state aid in the period 10/ /2011 in the EU: 1.6 bil.(13% of EU GDP)státnípodpory bylo vynaloženo na podporu bank v letech Kromě toho byla centrálními bankami poskytováno velké množství likvidity V rámci eurosystému bylo poskytnuto centrálními bankami prostřednictvím měnových operacívíce než 1.1 bil. (do poloviny roku 2012) Notes: Top 6 banks for Japan. Source: European Banking Federation (2011). 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 37

38 Volcker Banking Group HLEG Banking Group Prop trading+ Market making Swaps push-out pro Investment and commercial banking Prop trading+ Mkt making Investment and commercial banking Vickers Banking Group Investment and commercial banking (prop trading, mkt making, large corporate lending) Retail banking with higher capital requirements 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 38

39 EC proposal published on 29 th Jan, 2014 The European Commission issued on 29 January 2014 a proposed Regulation on structural measures for improving the resilience of EU banks This follows the development of national legislation on structural separation in Belgium, France, Germany and the UK; and the Volcker rule in the US. The proposed regulation is essentially a combination of a Volcker-type rule and a UK-style structural separation. The proposed Regulation has two main elements: The prohibition of proprietary trading, including commodities. The original Liikanen report did not include any recommendation to prohibit proprietary trading; and A structural separation power, under which national authorities could prohibit a bank that takes insured deposits from undertaking trading activities. Essentially, a banking group would have to undertake its trading activities in a separate legal entity from its retail deposit-taking. These restrictions would apply only to major banks operating in the EU. The Commission estimates this would apply to around 30 European banks, together with some branches of third country banks. 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 39

40 EC proposal The prohibition on proprietary trading would take effect from 1 January 2017; and the structural separation provisions from 1 July These proposals would have major implications for banks' business models. Large banks subject to these proposals will therefore need to assess the commercial viability of their current business activities. The extremely complex and lengthy regulations introduced in the US to implement the Volcker rule show how difficult this can be in practice. Potential implications: Strategic challenge for universal banks Lost business - banks may find it challenging to service large corporates across multiple entities Operational costs reporting, risk management, corporate governance Funding costs 2012KPMG Českárepublika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. 40

41 Banking Union

42 Banking Union cont. Deposit guarantee scheme financed by banks. Shortening period when depositos must be paid out (from present 20 to 7 days) Ex-ante financing: 0.8% of covered deposits to be reached within a 10-year period, collected from banks' contributions Better access for depositors to information about the protection of their deposits, and for DGSs about their members (i.e. banks) Borrowing between DGSs on a voluntary basis Coverage harmonized at euro ( inherited from 2009)

43 Děkuji za pozornost Zdeněk Tůma Partner KPMG Česká republika

44 2011 KPMG Česká republika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International).